this post was submitted on 14 Sep 2025
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The problem is that our armed forces are specifically structured to prevent civil war, while there aren't strong regional divisions right now. It's an all or nothing where you're either in control or you're not, and that will take a long time to change.
That said, Trump is absolutely destroying the institutional stability of our entire government in a way no one has done before. This won't allow for a civil war under him, but a decade or two down the road might be a different story.
If governors like Gavin Newsom are as sinister in their power grabs as I suspect, there might be an increase in regional divisions that could make battle lines exist. If other empires are smart, they'll encourage ambitious governors and local officials to lay the groundwork for a regionally divided civil war in the future. That'd be how an American civil war can happen; in the aftermath of a dictator like in the century of unrest after Caesar died.