if you wanna be a top tier forecaster, just never be able to be proven wrong

word on the street it that SBF and Diddy are sharing a cell. I can't wait for the NFT album to drop

Some of my favorite reactions to this paradigm shift in machine intelligence we are witnessing:

bless you Melanie.

Mine olde friend, the log scale, still as beautiful the day I met you

Weird, the AI that has read every chess book in existence and been trained on more synthetic games than any one human has seen in a lifetime still doesn't understand the rules of chess

^(just an interesting data point from Ernie, + he upvotes pictures of my dogs on FB so I gotta include him)

Dog tax

The once and future king + ol' muskrat give their most sensible total nuclear annihilation takes. Fellas, are we cooked?

'manual translation' undoubtably doing some heavy lifting here

ChatGPT's reaction each morning when I tell it that it's now the year 2024 and Ilya no longer works at OAI

did somebody troll him by saying ‘we will just make the LLM not make paperclips bro?’

rofl, I cannot even begin to fathom all the 2010 era LW posts where peeps were like, "we will just tell the AI to be nice to us uwu" and Yud and his ilk were like "NO DUMMY THAT WOULDNT WORK B.C. X Y Z ." Fast fwd to 2024, the best example we have of an "AI system" turns out to be the blandest, milquetoast yes-man entity due to RLHF (aka, just tell the AI to be nice bruv strat). Worst of all for the rats, no examples of goal seeking behavior or instrumental convergence. It's almost like the future they conceived on their little blogging site shares very little in common with the real world.

If I were Yud, the best way to salvage this massive L would be to say "back in the day, we could not conceive that you could create a chat bot that was good enough to fool people with its output by compressing the entire internet into what is essentially a massive interpolative database, but ultimately, these systems have very little do with the sort of agentic intelligence that we foresee."

But this fucking paragraph:

(If a googol monkeys are all generating using English letter-triplet probabilities in a Markov chain, their probability of generating Shakespeare is vastly higher but still effectively zero. Remember this Markov Monkey Fallacy anytime somebody talks about how LLMs are being trained on human text and therefore are much more likely up with human values; an improbable outcome can be rendered “much more likely” while still being not likely enough.)

ah, the sweet, sweet aroma of absolute copium. Don't believe your eyes and ears people, LLMs have everything to do with AGI and there is a smol bean demon inside the LLMs that is catastrophically misaligned with human values that will soon explode into the super intelligent lizard god the prophets have warned about.

The y-axis is absolute eye bleach. Also implying that an "AI researcher" has the effective compute of 10^6 smart high schoolers. What the fuck are these chodes smoking?

Not a sneer, just a feelsbadman.jpg b.c. I know peeps who have been sucked into this "its all Joever.png mentality", (myself included for various we live in hell reasons, honestly I never recovered after my cousin explained to me what nukes were while playing in the sandbox at 3)

The sneerworthy content comes later:

1st) Rats never fail to impress with appeal to authority fallacy, but 2nd) the authority in question is max totally unbiased not a member of the extinction cult and definitely not pushing crank theories for decades fuckin' tegmark roflmaou

It never ceases to amaze me watching these tech bros breathlessly hyping the next revolutionary product for it to be a huge nothing burger. Like that's it? You gave gpt an image to text input + and a text to speech app? Dawg, I've been watching Joe Biden & Trump play Fortnite for 5 years at this point, text to speech just doesn't hit the same anymore.

I mean my god, at least some hardcore engineering went in to making the migraine inducing apple vision pro. If this is the best card in oai's deck, I would be panicking as an investor.