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this post was submitted on 06 Dec 2023
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Or trump fails and continues to try, continuing the erosion of the Republican parties ability to win elections. Sure, some places move right but the majority of America moves left and the Dems start to move left too because of it.
Sure, there may be violence but that's not the same as a civil war and likely will be quickly quelled. 1/6 was amateur hour but it was scary how easily it still was allowed to happen.iy won't be allowed in the same way again, but it's important to prosecute those responsible for round 1, in order to not get multiple rounds after.
My hunch is that if the Republican Party implodes, anything but a symbolic leftward shift by the Democrat party will be halted by a flow of money from donors.
Any real change won’t happen without overturning citizens united.
I'd be fine if the Democrats became the conservative party without changing a single policy goal. A new party can emerge to their left.
Either Trump wins, which will destabilize America and lead to the collapse of society
Or
Trump loses and the Republicans continue pushing more and more extreme candidates. I know everyone here loves to circle jerk themselves about how all the Republicans will just die out and I think that's really near-sighted. Lots of young people increasingly support Trump. I'm around Gen z a lot and not all of them are democrats.
Or
Russia, feeling the pressure of an endless war, colludes with China, India, and the Arabs to wage all out war against America. Alone, none of them stand a chance against the US Military. But together, maybe they figure they have a chance. There's a lot of deep seeded anti-american resentment out in the world. A lot of politicians are tired of the American hegemony, and they have lots of support.
I just don't see a scenario where Trump loses, the Republicans give up trying to institute a theocracy, and Putin says "ok I guess this is enough war, we'll go home".
And I haven't even mentioned what would happen to global markets if Russia collapsed and countries started coalescing out of the rubble.
Or of the Israeli-Hamas genocide.
Or of unstoppable climate change.
Or of the pandemics that are sweeping the world.
Global hunger is on the rise again.
Make no mistake, this is the end of a chapter in human history. I'm not religious; I don't believe this is the end of days or anything like that. I think humans will survive and will continue to build new and great things. But I think a shitload of people are going to die first.
The biggest thing that kills countries or societies is revolts. China is experimenting to see if they can hold back revolts using technology to control citizens. We will have to wait and see if it works or instead creates a bigger tipping point.
For those in power before, war allowed them to increase their riches. As economies have become more interdependent, war hinders wealth generation, apart from on the military industrial complex. The incentive for war is less. That's the whole point of the EU, the marshall plan and globalisation efforts in general. It seems to be working. Putins position is more precarious than before the war. Trump is less liked overall, but does have more youth support than previously. That may be a side effect of youth growing up knowing no difference. 20 year old voters now were kids before he was a politician.
Look at current hardship with cost of living increases after the pandemic. Things are hard and it's starting to stabilize but it's less widespread hardship than, say, the great recession after Spanish flu. There is a rose in populism and authoritarianism worldwide but there has not yet been the same backwards jump in living standards.
If Trump is successful, I think he'll struggle to do much. He's old and it's dangerous but he's self interested, so as soon as it's hard he gives up and leaves it to others. If he loses, his power within politics diminishes more. The Republicans can try to shake him off and risk him weakening them or continue as now and go down with him. They will weaken either way, as has already been happening. I'm optimistic that we are indeed at one of those turning points in humanity. I wonder if the rise of ai and self driving will free many from work and truly lead to a post scarcity society. It all depends on how we distribute the spoils.