this post was submitted on 20 May 2025
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Is the prediction that services employment share will remain around 80% as production per worker continues to increase? A historical correlation is not always the best at predicting the future, especially if the underlying factors responsible for the correlation are not thoroughly understood.
I'm not sure they're predicting beyond where the US has already gone, just that other countries seem to be following the same trend. The trend shown can't continue in a linear fashion forever, and I don't think they'd argue that it's going down, so best guess at what they'd predict is that it will level off soon.