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I think it's all had a bigger impact on Lemmy than it has had on Reddit. The lasting impact might be that Reddit now has viable competition for the first time since Digg, which is a good thing.
Yeah. I don't expect Reddit to necessarily collapse immediately, or Lemmy to replace Reddit for all Reddit users. I'm just happy if Lemmy becomes at least a medium-sized social network. That means that it would have moved from a niche platform into a large enough ecosystem to sustain itself, and become a viable alternative to Reddit, like you said.
With a huge platform like Reddit, the impact of the current events might not be instantly obvious. But with everything going on recently with Twitter, Reddit, Mastodon, Lemmy, and even Threads, I think it's clear that there's some kind of transformation of the social media landscape going on. But how long it will take, and what the end result will look like, is anybody's guess. Maybe it's the fall of the old giants and a rise of new, more democratic platforms. Maybe the giants keep standing, but significantly weakened, with a bunch of new, smaller, more open platforms becoming real alternatives. Or maybe it's something else.
Be it as it may, I'm glad that the status quo is being shaken up a bit.
I'd be happy if Lemmy becomes like what Reddit was when it started and never grew beyond that. I don't need tons of clickbait outrage trash to doomscroll though every day.
I feel like having no karma and Thus no rewards for such behaviour helps a bit.