315
It's true... (lemmy.rollenspiel.monster)
submitted 1 year ago by 0x4E4F@lemmy.rollenspiel.monster to c/memes@lemmy.ml
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[-] Jay@sh.itjust.works 32 points 1 year ago

While Michael's assertion of a 50% chance of winning the race seems logical from his subjective viewpoint of "winning or not winning", it's mathematically incorrect. In a race with five equally skilled runners, the probability of any one runner winning is 1/5, or 20%. Michael's simplification of the outcomes doesn't correctly calculate the probability and indicates a possible misunderstanding of how to calculate odds.

Yes, this was made with ChatGPT. No, I'm not fun at parties.

[-] vext01@lemmy.sdf.org 21 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago)

But the question didn't say the drivers were equally skilled.

So the question cannot be answered!

Also not fun at parties...

[-] 0x4E4F@lemmy.rollenspiel.monster 5 points 1 year ago

You 2 should hang out with me more often.

[-] Sphks@lemmy.dbzer0.com 3 points 1 year ago

Also if they are equally skilled, his chances of winning is 0% since it will be a draw.

[-] vext01@lemmy.sdf.org 3 points 1 year ago

One assumes some non-determinism due to stochastic events in the racing environment.

[-] JustAManOnAToilet@lemmy.world 3 points 1 year ago

We're onto drivers now? Well that's easy, which one is driving a Red Bull?

[-] ShunkW@lemmy.world 28 points 1 year ago

This is an old running meme in the hearthstone community. No matter the question, 50/50 it either happens or it doesn't

[-] TokyoMonsterTrucker@lemmy.dbzer0.com 13 points 1 year ago

That's actually the best possible answer as it's a deeply stupid question. To many uncontrolled variables for a simple probability question.

Who are the other runners? If it's Usain Bolt vs. a 4th grader, the probability of the 4th grader winning approaches zero.

[-] NewEnglandRedshirt@lemmy.world 8 points 1 year ago

This fall, on Fox... Are You Faster than a 4th Grader?

[-] xavier666@lemm.ee 3 points 1 year ago

Assume there is a Michael, who on race day was mysteriously cloned 4 times in a perfect manner such that biologically and psychologically they are a perfect copy to the original. So there are now 4 Michaels plus one proto Michael.

Now they are put to a 100m race on a standard race track. Assume that the universe has normal randomness in wind and temperature variation. What is the probability that proto Michael wins the race?

[-] wumpus@latte.isnot.coffee 2 points 1 year ago

Still not enough info. The race is legally a tie if the times are within a certain (I think a millisecond) interval, and with runners this similar in ability, the probability that nobody wins is non-zero.

[-] xavier666@lemm.ee 2 points 1 year ago

The randomness in the air molecules are enough to case minor variation in finish timings. I think I should add that the observer can see the finish line with an accuracy of one Planck length and that observation uses a mysterious method which avoids Heisenburgs uncertainty principle. That should make the question well-defined πŸ˜†

[-] MonkderZweite@feddit.ch 1 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago)

10%. With exact clones it would be 0%, a draw. But with random influences, either of them has a 50% chance.

And /s if i'm wrong.

[-] TokyoMonsterTrucker@lemmy.dbzer0.com 1 points 1 year ago

THANK YOU. So much better.

[-] 0x4E4F@lemmy.rollenspiel.monster -1 points 1 year ago

It's still 50/50, he either wins or he doesn't 😁 πŸ˜‚.

[-] jsonborne@lemmy.ml 12 points 1 year ago

This is a huge meme in the old school RuneScape community. Some important drops are as rare as 1/5000 but people always say β€œyou either get the drop or you don’t”

[-] fushuan@lemm.ee 2 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago)

Either wins or it doesnt are the two possible outcomes, their chances of happenning being 50% or different is a separate matter.

The answer is that we can't know because each of those can have different skill levels. However, given that this seems to be a question t prove knowledge about odds of 1 in 5, let's assume that they are all equally skilled, then it's 1/5 = 20%.

No, this wasn't made with ChatGPT. I don't go to parties.

this post was submitted on 27 Jul 2023
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