So, a year from now the big instances will have lost all their users… (mylem.me)

submitted 1 year ago by blazarious@mylem.me to c/fediverse@lemmy.world

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…or how do you all picture the endgame of Meta's EEE campaign?

All I see right now is a 10x increase of people in the fediverse and while this may be challenging, isn't it ultimately a good thing?

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[-] Candelestine@lemmy.world 24 points 1 year ago

No. More people = always good is not true. Anyone who simply wants everyone in here I guess wants to see the content become facebook-level of quality?

[-] blazarious@mylem.me 7 points 1 year ago

More people isn't always good. But imagine some organizations and journalists that for whatever reason still are on Twitter can now be persuaded to sign up to Threads. Well, now they're in the fediverse.

And if the content from Threads is overwhelmingly bad we can always defederate and the fediverse still isn't destroyed.

So, how do I picture the extinguish part?

[-] Illecors@lemmy.cafe 10 points 1 year ago

Well, now they're in the fediverse.

No, they're not. Threads has federation disabled. And might never enable it

[-] blazarious@mylem.me 7 points 1 year ago

Okay, if it'll never enable federation then all our discussions are obsolete!

[-] Candelestine@lemmy.world 6 points 1 year ago

The misnomer is in the extinguish part, which is why the meme is pretty weak. Most services do not disappear, they simply stop growing and coast or dwindle.

The same fate is likely for us, due to the superior resources Zuck will have compared to us, once he is connected. We will no longer have any unique value we can provide, there will never be a reason to migrate to us.

However, Zuck had the resources to co-opt the entire development process. He can offer things like video hosting, that are out of reach for most Instance owners. Simply put, he can beat us. He'll have access to everything we have, plus his own resources. Anyone that stands in his way can be bought, he can throw millions without blinking an eye.

Our only real chance is to never sign the deal in the first place. Otherwise our irrelevance is virtually guaranteed. The idea we can actually outperform Meta well enough to pull people from it is frankly laughable to me. Do people get pulled from facebook often? Why not? It's crap, after all.