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this post was submitted on 17 Aug 2024
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The factory making these is still like 6 years out. The ones on market are like 65% energy dense, and lithium tech has only gained a few percent a year, so I don't know where you're getting your thoughts from. For EV'S, sodium ion is going to be a far shot behind solid state. By the time sodium could catch up to being close to today's lithium batts, solid state will be far cheaper and have a huge power density advantage.
Volkswagen id4 today has a battery of 168 wh/kg:
https://www.batterydesign.net/vw-id-4-82kwh-battery/
CATL launched a 160 wh/kg sodium battery in 2021:
https://www.catl.com/en/news/665.html
They are already gearing up for production of 200 wh/kg sodium batteries, and in talks with automakers about it:
https://www.electrive.com/2024/05/06/catl-gears-up-for-next-gen-sibs-and-global-licensing/
If the id4 on sale now has enough range for you, then a sodium ion version will give the same while being cheaper and having fewer fire concerns. Solid state lithium will be nice, but expect them in more expensive models.
Even if they manage to "gear up" and make it to 200 wh/kg, that's years away and TODAY lithium EV batts are hitting 270 wh/kg. 35% more energy dense.
And you'll spend more money to get that. Not every EV needs the most capacity out there.
If your ev isn't good enough for a road trip, that means for like 90% of you, you have to own another vehicle.
I have such an ev right now that's in line with the numbers we're talking about here. It's good enough for a road trip. We're trying to sell our only ICE car now because we're not using it.
isn't it about an 8% improvement year on year historically?
I double checked. It looks like about 5% per year.
yeah that seems about right, it's still pretty good though.
Over 10 years that's 50% more capacity compared to older cells.
It's actually been about 8% in recent years, but historically 5%. We'll see which one holds, but either compounds to doubling capacity in shorter time than you might think.
yeah, you would expect it to slow down over time, given the ever encroaching theoretical limits of technology, but obviously that depends on how far that is from here. Otherwise you generally expect to see an increase likely proportional to the amount of sold product (more R&D funding) as well as a function of competition, which is pretty high right now.