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Large Majority of Americans Want to End Electoral College
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this post was submitted on 26 Sep 2024
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It would not. There is already a pact with a bunch of states that say once they have enough support they will put their electoral votes towards the popular vote of the country not the popular vote of their state. If enough states get on board the EC becomes powerless. Because the states determine how they vote.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Popular_Vote_Interstate_Compact
They are getting close. A couple more states needed for activation.
And if and when it gets passed, the conservative scotus, which has constantly ruled in favor of states rights being nearly unlimited and that precedent or other writings about the cotus don't count, will buck both these trends and vote that this violates the cotus based on some obscure writing by some founding father.
This SCOTUS would uphold Dred Scott v. Sanford.
Republicans: "States rights!" States: Decriminalize cannabis, affirm women's rights, sign on with the NPVIC, etc... Republicans: "No, not like THAT!"
Probably that interstate compacts have to be approved by Congress. It would be the most obvious angle of attack.
Doesn't end it, merely does an end run around it. Also unlikely to ever take effect, because to get to 270 electoral votes worth of states supporting it you're going to need to get states on board with it who will directly lose influence and/or who generally don't vote in line with California and moving to the winner being decided by national popular vote (whether directly or by using it to pledge electors) essentially makes the result largely determined by turnout in California (both times in recent history the popular vote and electoral vote were not in alignment, the margin for the national popular vote was smaller than the margin in California).
It's a lower bar to reach than actually ending the electoral college, but it's unlikely to succeed for essentially the same reason - you have to get multiple states that will essentially lose any influence over the executive branch if they approve it to approve it.
I read that last part as, “A couple more states needed for Activision” and my blood pressure temporarily spiked lol.