499
you are viewing a single comment's thread
view the rest of the comments
view the rest of the comments
this post was submitted on 11 Aug 2023
499 points (94.6% liked)
Fuck Cars
9789 readers
6 users here now
This community exists as a sister community/copycat community to the r/fuckcars subreddit.
This community exists for the following reasons:
- to raise awareness around the dangers, inefficiencies and injustice that can come from car dependence.
- to allow a place to discuss and promote more healthy transport methods and ways of living.
You can find the Matrix chat room for this community here.
Rules
-
Be nice to each other. Being aggressive or inflammatory towards other users will get you banned. Name calling or obvious trolling falls under that. Hate cars, hate the system, but not people. While some drivers definitely deserve some hate, most of them didn't choose car-centric life out of free will.
-
No bigotry or hate. Racism, transphobia, misogyny, ableism, homophobia, chauvinism, fat-shaming, body-shaming, stigmatization of people experiencing homeless or substance users, etc. are not tolerated. Don't use slurs. You can laugh at someone's fragile masculinity without associating it with their body. The correlation between car-culture and body weight is not an excuse for fat-shaming.
-
Stay on-topic. Submissions should be on-topic to the externalities of car culture in urban development and communities globally. Posting about alternatives to cars and car culture is fine. Don't post literal car fucking.
-
No traffic violence. Do not post depictions of traffic violence. NSFW or NSFL posts are not allowed. Gawking at crashes is not allowed. Be respectful to people who are a victim of traffic violence or otherwise traumatized by it. News articles about crashes and statistics about traffic violence are allowed. Glorifying traffic violence will get you banned.
-
No reposts. Before sharing, check if your post isn't a repost. Reposts that add something new are fine. Reposts that are sharing content from somewhere else are fine too.
-
No misinformation. Masks and vaccines save lives during a pandemic, climate change is real and anthropogenic - and denial of these and other established facts will get you banned. False or highly speculative titles will get your post deleted.
-
No harassment. Posts that (may) cause harassment, dogpiling or brigading, intentionally or not, will be removed. Please do not post screenshots containing uncensored usernames. Actual harassment, dogpiling or brigading is a bannable offence.
Please report posts and comments that violate our rules.
founded 3 years ago
MODERATORS
That is per mile, which is usually not the distance humans limit themselves to in their lives. Assuming you travel a million miles in your life, you do have a 20% chance of dying if exclusively using a motorcycle, which I would consider relevant. The change from car to train already far less so.
Fair and excellent points.
Assuming 20,000 miles traveled per year, it would take 50 years to reach 1,000,000 miles. So let's lay out the % odds of fatality over 50 years, at 20,000 miles per year, if using each of these means exclusively:
You're also getting at another important point: it is difficult for people to really comprehend very large or very small numbers. With that in mind, if we divide each of those percentages by 50, we should come up with the odds of dying in a given vehicle per year, again, given a 20,000 mile per year usage and exclusive use of one vehicle type:
Of these, only motorcycle and car are anywhere near significant, and they're still really unlikely. The remaining three still are small enough to be essentially incomprehenisble. (And who travels 20,000 miles a year on a ferry, anyway?)
Another bit I would like to note is that the comparison posed was between car and train, based on safety. Why was airplane not mentioned? It's far and away the least likely to kill you.
Of course airplane wasn't mentioned. Airplanes are not appropriate solutions to many kinds of necessary travel, and airplanes in general have a worse reputation for their environmental effects. Trains are not solutions to many kinds of necessary travel, either, at least not in the current landscape of travel options available to very many people in the United States.
Again, I know exactly where I'm commenting. I definitely think that there should be way more public transportation options available. I think the number of individual-operated vehicle miles can and should be reduced. I think the kinds of individual-operated vehicles should be addressed more sensibly (we don't get to have the small pickups of the 80s and 90s because of unintended consequences of CAFE standards driving manufacturers to create larger and larger "light" trucks, for example).
Pointing out that "cars are 17 times more likely to kill you than trains!" does not serve the purpose of making a better world through transportation reform.
That's kind of the point though. Trying to get folks in the US to support better travel infrastructure. Doesn't even always have to be trains.
Why not? Everything you said honestly made it sound like everything else is a much safer alternative than personal vehicles. Why is that not an argument for better infrastructure and transportation reform? I've known people who have died in car accidents. I do not know anyone that's even been in a train accident let alone killed in one. Your numbers are not that supportive of cars being generally safe. Those are not great odds when considering the loss is catastrophic. It's probably one of the biggest risks folks willingly take and will actively avoid lesser risks.
Also not saying it's wrong, but why are we dividing by 50? It's per mile basis. If it's 20000 miles per year, it's already by year, no?
yes, 7% dead by 50 seems a lot to me. I see no reason to split that to an annual rate either.
50 is still young to die, so all of that 7% died young, when still of working age
If car is a fundamental long-term lifestyle choice/situation then people are exposed to the risk for a long period of time. ,20,30, 40 50 years. Its probbaly a decision on the same frquency as the choice to live urban/suburb/rural - maybe every 5-10 years to make a choice - but maybe a change only a few times in a lifetime.
Put this another way...
If the car users had decent range and network of bus /train /cycle /walk options and were willing to use them , they might be able to choose their risk exposure year by year, trip by trip and minimise it.
but without those alternatives in place, it's just not a year-by-year decision for many people.
7% probably will die and may not feel they had the choice to do anything else.
I assume you'd see it as one of the leading causes of death (in the working age population) for that reason. Sorry i don't know those stats of the top of my head- and i don't know how to search on the internet.
The only thing i'd caveat with the stats are, safety figures from 2000-2009 will not be representative of 30-50 years from now.
Hopefully road design will improve - and vehicle design will definitely become safer for those in the cars. so the risk will likely fall.
Though the interaction between safety and congestion can go either way.
but suppose the risk halves (i'd reckon optimistic) the 7% drop to 3.5% i think that's still a serious killer in my book.
I'm being very nitpicky but this isn't quite how it works, if you have a 90% chance of survival one year, you'd have 0.9^2 = 0.81= 81% chance of surviving two years in a row. With that in mind, the odds of dying should be relative to the fiftieth root of surviving fifty years, which gives:
Without additional decimals it's hard to see the change for the really small numbers but it doesn't make much of a difference in reality.
Thank you, 1/5 of lifetime motorcyclists dying in wreck doesn’t add up.
I have no idea about the statistics about motorcycle fatalities and for personal reasons I'd prefer not to get into them. I was just commenting on the way the statistics were calculated year-by-year with the assumption that the original statistics for fifty years were accurate. That being said, it's possible that those statistics were not completely correctly calculated as well.
The fifty year statistics were also computed wrong, for the same reason you already explained. It doesn't make much of a difference since the probabilities are so small anyway.
1 in 1000 is not really unlikely if it is in regards to your life ending.
However even taking your number it would lead to devastating pictures.
2 married people with 4 grandparents 1 aunt 3 friends and 3 kids means every year 22+-5 out of a small 1000 family neighbourhood will be affected by car deaths.
Assuming that a relevant time period is from the birth of a child till it is 30 and therefore might have had a child of their own, so 30 years we get that around 66%+-10% of families will be affected. Instead of only 1-3 families during that time.
You did not lift the veil of ignorance, you created a new veil of diffusion.
It would mean that two out of three families would lose a close person within a 30 year generation due to cars, instead of only a small percentage. This is the power of the 17 times!
The alternative of train rides would mean that within a generation virtually no family is affected by car deaths.