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Britain will rejoin the EU within 15 years, former Brussels chief predicts
(www.independent.co.uk)
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this post was submitted on 26 Oct 2024
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Certainly would be good for both parties. Both the EU and the UK were weakened by the move.
Unfortunately, in the UK, while most people think Brexit was a mistake, and most would vote to rejoin if there was a referendum (this has been backed up, by a large margin in polls for years now)... there's not much of a movement to actually call for one to be held.
Brexit dominated the political scene all the way back to the EU/Syrian refugee crisis, up until 2021. Aside from COVID, nothing else was even spoken about in political news or in parliament.
No other issues in the country got any attention, so much political capital was spent on Brexit, to the detriment of everything else. I think people are wary of having another 5+ year onslaught of hearing about nothing other than Brexit.
I do certainly think it's possible (and IMO preferable), though. Labour seem intent on getting closer and closer to the EU. Maybe their plan is to continue with that and hope rejoining is on the cards later. Unfortunately right now it's a hard sell, based on the fatigue around the entire Brexit discussion I mentioned above.
Would it really be that great for the EU, though? After all, the UK was never particularly fond of the European idea generally and further integration (i.e. federalization) in particular, to put it mildly. My biggest fear is the UK might go back blocking just about anything that goes beyond simple trade deals.
So, imho, the EU would be better off it the UK simply rejoined the common market, but not the political union. We have more than enough dissent, as is.
Yes, it would. Both benefit from it. That's why the UK and EU are (mostly silently and in the background) getting closer again, and why a number of EU politicians are making remarks like this.
And the UK didn't block everything other than trade deals. In fact the UK didn't really block much at all if you look into it.
They didn't use their veto more than other large economies, and the likes of Poland and Hungary blocked more. And let's not get into the Netherlands, Ireland, and others blocking attempts at closing tax loopholes.
It's not like the EU has seen massive structural changes since it was "unshackled" from the UK, is it?
Tbf, I couldn't find a source for the UK's voting behavior (and I was being a bit hyperbole). And it's true tht we haven't really seen any reforms since then. The EU has many different countries that want different things at times and some (including mine) are incredibly apathetic.
But that is actually the reason why I do not want the UK to rejoin. Structural reforms are incredibly slow and hard as is. Let's take a common European army for example; afaik a majority would be in favor of it. A member of the European parliament that I once talked with also talked about widespread support within the official bodies of the union. And still, things are slow, though not stagnant; i.e. Germany and the Netherlands have begun integrating their armies into ond.
And all of what has changed i this regard, happened after Brexit (or the referendum, anyway). The UK never had to block votes, because with the UK, any attempts towards a common European army would have been struck down long before anybody got to vote on it. Heck, Eurosceptics loved to use ideas like these to paint Brussels as the boogeyman.
So I'm still not convinced that a full rejoin would offer significant advantages over a Norway type of deal for the EU.
Of course it would offer something significant. Like it or not, the UK is the second largest economy in Europe, likely has more soft power worldwide than any other EU country, has some of the world's best scientific institutions, etc.
Even just the UK's contribution to the EU budget would be a huge positive.
And of course there are massive benefits for the UK as well - way easier trade, not having to duplicate a lot of EU laws creating needless bureaucracy, slowing of the UK's gradual decline on the world stage as the Asian economies becomes more prominent, etc.
If it offered nothing then we wouldn't have numerous EU politicians making comments like this very article details, no?
Oops, I missed a few words in my last paragraph. My bad.
I agree that the larger market and membership fees would be beneficial to the EU (though it doesn't need it even half as much as the UK needs access to the market).
Both of these things, however, would also be achieved if the UK only joined the EEA instead of the EU itself (=what i was trying to say in my last comment). Like Norway or Iceland, the UK would retain (more?) control over some areas, including farming and fishing, but would have no say on EU internals.
And since the internal affairs are complicated enough without the UK, I don't see how minor benefits could outweigh its general stance towards Europe and further integration (which, imho, is needed direlly)
To be honest, I even have doubts about the UKs soft power post Brexit; in my perception, it has decreased drastically since the referendum.
Edit: I am in complete agreement on your points about benefits for the UK. Heck, from the UK's perspective, full membership would probably be best. I just don't think it would be in the best interest of the union.
You keep saying this, yet multiple EU politicians keep expressing a desire for the UK to be in the union.
Like I say, the massive boost to the EU budget alone would make it worthwhile. Nevermind the other stuff.
I repeated myself because I thought you overlooked some of my arguments or that I didn't express myself clearly. But no, you simply chose to ignore half my arguments three times in a row. Nice!
Do you have something to counter my points on EEA vs EU membership, or is "You keep saying this…" all you could come up with?
If that's a sound argument, then surely Brexit was a splendid idea, too – after all, multiple politicians expressed a desire for it!
I already had. EEA membership wouldn't entail the massive EU budget contributions, for example. Not would you get as much benefit from the UK's soft power, or as intertwined an economy.
I didn't ignore it three times. I ignored it zero times. It was a point already addressed before you even brought it up in the first place.
It's you who hasn't presented any evidence that EEA would actually be better (and seemingly, the EU disagrees with you btw). All you did was lie and say the UK blocked a lot of stuff when they absolutely didn't.
False equivelance.
Brexit was pushed by political opportunists like Farage and Boris, who saw it as a path to power. Boris famously had a letter in support of Remain and a letter in favour of Leave, before deciding that backing Leave would be the best path to becoming PM.
High up EU politicians aren't doing this because they think it'll somehow make them the head of the EU commission or something, they're doing it because it's in the interest of the EU.