this post was submitted on 04 Nov 2024
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There is a theory that sanctions against a country with a tyrannical ruler hurt the common people more than the oligarchs / dictator. But eventually they do make life more difficult for that ruler
The common people are the ones who overthrow the dictator eventually
That happens relatively rarely. Remember the protests in recent years in Thailand, Hong Kong, Iran? They went exactly nowhere.
TF you on? Just because there weren’t immediate, drastic regime level changes doesn’t mean they went “exactly nowhere”.
There have been many changes at smaller levels not being reported in mainstream western media. Public pressure called for MANY local officials to step down along with changes in law that have already started effecting everyday life, and at least in Thailand, some pretty major changes in how public officials are held accountable via more expansive auditing channels, thereby increasing transparency.
Not everything is a fucking hollywood movie wherein you have some Hunger Games style uprising against the elite.
In fact, it’s fucking insulting hearing people who haven’t an ounce of global exposure beyond whatever 2 or 3 media sources they shove their heads into saying “those protesters got nothing accomplished”.
Never let anyone tell you protesting doesn’t work.
Absolutely nothing happened in Iran. The morality police was given some practice in beating up teenagers and young adults for a couple of months, but the protests went exactly nowhere.
Do you have family in Iran? Cousins? Uncles? Anything?
It could have worked. It was worth trying
But not if the pressure is mostly coming from the external. Or worse if we look at Egypt, where now an even worse dictator than Mubarak rules, after the Egyptians have elected people the West didn't like, and getting couped quickly.
Iraq Afghanistan North Korea
So only 3-4 left to go :-)
Jk
But letting the dictator free reign is even worse, look at how many people putin has killed in the unnecessary agression of Ukraine. That's not some slight "suffering", that's death and everything that comes with it for the families left behind.
Anywhere in the modern era basically
If that were true Cuba would be a US territory, Russia would've collapsed in the early 2000s, and myanmars would still be Burma.
The only thing sanctions do is harm the common person. The ruler and government can always still get whatever they want.
There's quite a big space between "does something" and "immediately causes the exact result desired"
Hany many decades or centuries? We're closing in on three quarters of a century of sanctions against Cuba and a quarter century against the Russia we built. There are less than 3% of Cubans alive right now that we're alive when the sanctions started. Most Cubans have been born and died within the time we've sanctioned the country. When does cruelty towards a civilian population make them start to believe you're the good guys?
I never said it makes them "believe you're the good guys"
I just said that claiming it doesn't have any influence on leaders is categorically wrong
I'd also like to note that sanctions on the USSR are generally considered a contributing factor to its collapse, so the whole "look at noughties Russia thing" is a bit silly given that it did contribute to regime change within the previous decade
You did, as that's the point of sanctions, to make a populace believe their government is wrong and the people doing the sanctioning are right. That is the sole attempted effect of sanctions. To punish a populace for not killing themselves against a wall in revolution, or daring to agree that should happen at all.
It has no effect on whether a leader stays in power, or whether a leader changes course. Once a country adapts to the sanctions, they're much more resistant to outside influence. Smart leaders do their best to make life easier for their citizens under this new way of life while the difficult transition away from global trade takes hold.
The ussr collapsed primarily due to competing with the US in the space race and having to spend most of the rest of their limited resources on fighting off US aggression, on top of corruption that went unchecked - again primarily because police resources were being wasted fighting off us aggression, not due to sanctions.