Things can always go backward, and there’s no limit to how far

Yes, there totally is a limit. Look at public sentiment and polling on questions of support for trans rights. This has shifted dramatically for the better in the last 10 years and that's a cultural shift that doesn't suddenly disappear just because a vocal group temporarily gets their way. People who support us don't suddenly become transphobic over night. I'd argue big cultural changes like this do actually ensure that progress is guaranteed.

Even on abortion law, the response in many states was positive and many state-level protection were put in place in response. And even where they were not, a significant majority of the population is in favor of strong protections for reproductive rights.

There's a lot of noise made by a very vocal minority. Think about why the country "swung right" and what that means. When asked what they support in a neutral context it turns out many people who voted Trump actually more strongly support Democratic party policies and are not actually right wing. They voted out of ignorance and out of frustration. Or many of those who were frustrated didn't vote. These are solvable problems - solvable through advocacy and education.

The way I look at the current situation is to see the MAGA movement as an extension of the Tea Party crap. This is in many ways the last gasp of a heavily white supremacist Christian Nationalism that can be more vocal and influential than their numbers would suggest. Their views are solidly minority views and don't actually have broad support. But they win elections and influence politicians by being incredibly well organized and politically active.

My hope is that rather than throwing up our hands and giving up, this period will spark more engagement and activism in the trans community and in progressive circles generally. Because frankly we've gotten complacent and a bit lazy and worse, we bicker constantly. These are literally the only reasons the MAGA cult has even been able to take hold at all.