520
Watching the Generative AI Hype Bubble Deflate
(ash.harvard.edu)
you are viewing a single comment's thread
view the rest of the comments
view the rest of the comments
this post was submitted on 22 Dec 2024
520 points (95.9% liked)
Technology
60087 readers
2609 users here now
This is a most excellent place for technology news and articles.
Our Rules
- Follow the lemmy.world rules.
- Only tech related content.
- Be excellent to each another!
- Mod approved content bots can post up to 10 articles per day.
- Threads asking for personal tech support may be deleted.
- Politics threads may be removed.
- No memes allowed as posts, OK to post as comments.
- Only approved bots from the list below, to ask if your bot can be added please contact us.
- Check for duplicates before posting, duplicates may be removed
Approved Bots
founded 2 years ago
MODERATORS
Computers have always been good at pattern recognition. This isn't new. LLM are not a type of actual AI. They are programs capable of recognizing patterns and Loosely reproducing them in semi randomized ways. The reason these so-called generative AI Solutions have trouble generating the right number of fingers. Is not only because they have no idea how many fingers a person is supposed to have. They have no idea what a finger is.
The same goes for code completion. They will just generate something that fills the pattern they're told to look for. It doesn't matter if it's right or wrong. Because they have no concept of what is right or wrong Beyond fitting the pattern. Not to mention that we've had code completion software for over a decade at this point. Llms do it less efficiently and less reliably. The only upside of them is that sometimes they can recognize and suggest a pattern that those programming the other coding helpers might have missed. Outside of that. Such as generating act like whole blocks of code or even entire programs. You can't even get an llm to reliably spit out a hello world program.
Large context window LLMs are able to do quite a bit more than filling the gaps and completion. They can edit multiple files.
Yet, they're unreliable, as they hallucinate all the time. Debugging LLM-generated code is a new skill, and it's up to you to decide to learn it or not. I see quite an even split among devs. I think it's worth it, though once it took me two hours to find a very obscure bug in LLM-generated code.
Humans are notoriously worse at tasks that have to do with reviewing than they are at tasks that have to do with creating. Editing an article is more boring and painful than writing it. Understanding and debugging code is much harder than writing it etc., observing someone cooking to spot mistakes is more boring than cooking etc.
This also fights with the attention required to perform those tasks, which means a higher ratio of reviewing vs creating tasks leads to lower quality output because attention is depleted at some point and mistakes slip in. All this with the additional "bonus" to have to pay for the tool AND the human reviewing while also wasting tons of water and energy. I think it's wise to ask ourselves whether this makes sense at all.
To make sense of that, figure out what pays more observing/editing or cooking/writing. Big shekels will make boring parts exciting
Think also the amount of people doing both. Also writers earn way more than editors, and stellar chefs earn way more than cooking critics.
If you think devs will be paid more to review GPT code, well, I would love to have your optimism.
I'm too unfamiliar with the cooking and writing/publishing biz. I'd rather not use this analogy.
I can see many business guys paying for something like Devin, making a mess, then hiring someone to fix it. I can see companies not hiring junior devs, and requiring old devs to learn to generate and debug. Just like they required devs to be "full stack". You can easily prevent that if you have your own company. If ... Do you have your own company?
I don't, like 99% of people don't or won't. My job is safe, I am arguing from a collective perspective.
I simply don't think companies will act like that. Also the mere reduction of total number of positions will compress salaries.
What collective perspective? There's gonna be winners and losers, non uniform rewards and costs. Companies are already acting like that. And IMO more will join. They're a hive mind who eagerly copy Google, Amazon, Facebook. And younger devs will add "LLM code gen" to their resumes. No job is safe, even kings and dictators get their heads chopped off.
Tech worker collective perspective. Those whose jobs will generally be affected due to idiots in position of power who are ready to believe that LLMs can do a good chunk of what devs do.
What does it say about you if you let idiots have power over you?
That the world is not a cartoon and even idiots have structural power and it's not me "letting them"? Aldo again, this is not a "me" discussion. I will be fine. But many people in the industry will be screwed.
It's similar to when factories got mechanized, and people were promised 2 day work weeks. In reality, the number of high paying jobs shrunk, and wages compressed. That's just the march of progress:)
Well, since I have the chance to at least fight against idiots who push against their own interests (my colleagues and peers) I do.
So you'll be breaking Altman's beak with a baseball bat?
Do you think he is my peer or colleague? I wish...
Also Altman is not the problem, managers everywhere are
I just pictured Altman when I read "fight managers".
That's too many beaks for you to break. You'll have to wait 20 years for robotics to improve.