333
Monty rule problem (lemmy.world)
submitted 1 year ago by pory@lemmy.world to c/196@lemmy.blahaj.zone
you are viewing a single comment's thread
view the rest of the comments
[-] affiliate@lemmy.world 70 points 1 year ago

i thought it would be helpful to make a comment on why the probability after switching is 66%, since it's very counterintuitive. the main reason has to do with why a certain door was chosen to be opened.

in more detail: it helps to instead think about a situation where there are 100 doors, 99 of which have a goat behind them. (original problem was about goats and a car). you choose one of 100 doors. there's a 1% chance you picked the door with the car. in other words, there is a 99% chance the car is behind a door you did not pick. put differently, 99 times out of 100, you are in a situation where the car is behind a door you did not choose.

afterward you pick your door, the host picks 98 doors with goats behind them and opens them. (this is another crucial detail, the host can only open doors that don't have a car behind them.) it is still true that 99% of the time, the car is behind a door you did not choose. this is because the doors were opened after you made your choice. but now, there is only one door you did not choose, so that door has a 99% chance of having a car behind it.

[-] pory@lemmy.world 30 points 1 year ago

Your hypothetical strapped 495 people to train tracks, you absolute monster! Statically, about forty of those 495 have serious chronic back pain, too. You obviously don't care about the disabled. Be more careful next time when changing the number of doors in a Monty Hall problem!

[-] ActuallyRuben@actuallyruben.nl 7 points 1 year ago

On the other hand, statistically, the chance of anyone dying is much much lower

load more comments (8 replies)
this post was submitted on 19 Aug 2023
333 points (100.0% liked)

196

16505 readers
1952 users here now

Be sure to follow the rule before you head out.

Rule: You must post before you leave.

^other^ ^rules^

founded 1 year ago
MODERATORS