GenZhou

We can't be sure. We can only observe and analyze. Here's the most important thing to understand:

Imperialism doesn't work as a model for sustainable society. Capitalism doesn't work as model for sustainable society. When the zeitgeist of a community is one of fear and ignorance, these understandings don't matter. They will build whatever it takes to survive.

But China isn't that community. The contemporary Chinese political zeitgeist emerged after Marx's thorough analysis of sustainable society and demonstration of universal benefit of communism as a social arrangement. China is heavily influenced by Marx and Marxism, by diamat and historical materialism. They teach it to their children, they engage with it at all levels of production and social organizing. The Chinese zeitgeist is fully aware that imperialism means death for China, just as much as they are aware that imperialism means death for the North Atlantic.

Is it possible, even given the above, that China will lose its way and build imperialism? Absolutely! So we must remain vigilant. But China also watched it happen in the USSR. And the USSR was unprepared for the dynamics of reaction. China watched this happen and the zeitgeist incorporates the risk of social destruction into it's workings. More than that, not only did the USSR lose itself, the Soviet leaders who caused it did not benefit consistently or durably enough for most leaders in the world to believe that the USSR revisionist model would benefit them personally. They understand that going that route means death and terror.

It's still possible. But it's not going to be a roll of the dice. It's going to come from a material analysis that shows a path to durable victory for the Chinese bourgeoisie. So far, no one really has that analysis. The Chinese bourgeoisie would need to ally with the North Atlantic to pull it off, and the North Atlantic showed everyone what they do to former socialist projects: shock therapy, bombings, assassination, wealth extraction.

I don't see a path to durable victory for the Chinese bourgeoisie. Even if China went full imperilaist capitalist they would still be in mortal competition with the North Atlantic, but they would now also have fatal internal contradictions that every member of society grows up learning about and is socially reinforced and to which there does not appear to be a solution other than death.

So, critical support is what we are called upon to deliver, and hope is what buttresses our optimism, and historical materialism is what undergirds our hope. Remain critical, but remain optimistic.