this post was submitted on 10 May 2025
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I've become convinced after the recent India/Pakistan conflict that WW3 is near impossible under current conditions just due to the fact that you start losing your very expensive airforce really really quickly.
Before Ukraine, I’d read that idea quite a few times.
Previous wars were run on logistics and manufacturing - can you keep your guys supplied longer than the other side? But now you goto war with what you have, you lose ridiculously expensive and very lethal equipment very quickly. Modern equipment is so complex and expensive that you can never sufficiently speed up manufacturing, so once you’re out, you’re out. Your equipment may not last long enough to institute a draft and call up more people, so once you’re out, you’re out. War over. Very quickly.
That was the expectation. Then there’s Ukraine, which defied all expectations. Somehow it kept going, it turned into a logistics battle again. The modern lethality didn’t happen as expected
The losses for the Russian airforce has been huge, i feel like the war would be over now if not for the massive minefields they laid down sort of freezing the conflict
It seems the Ukraine conflict and the U.S's plans to counter China's push on Taiwan indicate that the future of warfare is:
....Just...a gazillion, never-ending swarms of coordinated, "cheap", militarized drones....
I remember reading somewhere that one of the reasons the War in Ukraine has gone on as long as it has is because of how much of the conflict has been taken up by the use of militarized drones, cutting down on (but not eliminating by any means) the amount of people getting killed.
Which is good in that it means fewer people dying in a pointless war for Putin's ego, but bad in that in that it dulls the human cost that has been known to really kill war efforts, even in dictatorships.