this post was submitted on 21 May 2025
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[โ€“] Pnut@lemm.ee -5 points 1 day ago (1 children)

Does "bad for your health" mean "if we hadn't been doing this, life expectancy would be about 200 years"?

[โ€“] exasperation@lemm.ee 3 points 1 day ago

There's three metrics to think about:

  • Actual number of years reduced/increased
  • Actual probability of that change in lifespan
  • Statistical certainty that the trend we observe is actually linked to the variable we're studying.

Russian roulette (traditional 1 round in 6 chambers) in a hospice ward (where everyone has been given a prognosis of less than 6 months to live) would be a very high certainty of shaving months off the life of 1/6 of the studied population. In the grand scheme of things, that's not a very high risk. But at the same time, we can look at it and say "yes, shooting oneself with a revolver is very bad for health." Putting a more or less deadly round in the chamber is probably not going to be a hugely significant change in outcomes, even if we can objectively say that one is better or worse for the person's health than the other.

Almost all dietary/nutrition studies involve much smaller swings in lifespan or health conditions, probabilistically over a smaller portion of the population, with less statistical certainty in the observations. But the science is still worth doing, and analyzing, because that all adds up.