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this post was submitted on 29 Aug 2023
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For anyone wondering: still significantly above the pre-war price
From a personal perspective, my restaurant energy bill (gas/electric) went from peak season August 1350€ last year to less than 800€. Anecdotal, but I absolutely needed to see lower pricing this year.
From what I understand (I may be understanding little), Saudis responded opposite the western requests and seemingly in coordination with Russia cut output, and have been cutting output. Driving up energy prices and overall inflation. There seems to be some power play happening between the Saudis and Biden if I am reading the news correctly.
Yes, there's an oil war going on between the US and Saudis + Russia.
A lot less catastrophic than what had been announced.
The US was in a good position to take on a lot of these contracts and the Biden administration, despite what the right might think, is actually extracting more domestic O&G than at any point. The shift is also that when oil prices climb high enough it makes shale production profitable enough to actually extract. I don't see how it falls back to pre-war levels but the US can also more than make up for the demand with a high enough price per barrel. I think much under $50 a barrel of NYMEX, most of the US producers stop operating.