God ... so sorry ... just had a coffee and mashed the keyboard ... looooong rant ... IN SHORT ... yes!!

Interesting thoughts here!

• The BlueSky situation makes a lot of sense. In another thread on here I was discussing with some people how the psychology of leaving a big long term social media staple like Twitter/Reddit is non-trivial. Someone interestingly suggested that most of the "rage" or "rudeness" you see here isn't from a bad Reddit culture coming across but a side effect of the anger and frustration felt and expressed through the whole migration event.
  • Beyond that there's probably more to unpack about the idea, where, I'd guess that building a culture based on leaving a "bad place" is always harder than doing it based on a starting "new and good place". A lot of the "culture problems/frustrations" over on masto seem to resonate with that idea. For me, personally, though I'm not really a social media person and have never really been committed to any platform or anything, masto and ActivityPub kinda feel like let downs, and I think the psychology of "migrating" off of a "bad place" and the way it plays out and affects culture is a major factor behind that. The others being aligned with your other points!
• I didn't really know the developer community had failed to coalesce ... I'd always figured it happened somewhere I didn't know about. Interestingly, from what I've heard, the lemmy admin/developer community has kinda coalesced on a few matrix rooms and discord servers and it is working well so far. Lemmy is much smaller than mastodon though, so it might just be that there's less room for drama/splits (though obviously it does occur).
  • On the other hand ... how much of this is mastodon culture? I'd bet some of it is ... ?
  • More generally though ... a very scathing critique IMO! I'd imagine people who know about community management would have something to say about it. My intuition thinks about the lack of shared software which means no developer has any reason to cooperate with any other. If there were for instance a commonly used generic AP server or stack, or reference implementation, then there'd at least be a common development forum for people together. But, having just a common protocol and then completely diverging projects building decentralised systems means that separation and independence are the key social structures between developers and admins. Lemmy devs for instance are not fans of mastodon devs due to allegedly poor documentation and the resultant difficulties of federating with masto.
  • Beyond that, I think of where communities have developed in tech, with particular languages being an obvious example, and I think that you need a commonly loved central tool (such as a language, framework, kernel, OS, app etc). ActivityPub is probably not that tool? And masto creating its own de facto standard that other platforms have to begrudgingly work with probably doesn't help at all. I wonder how devs of mastodon forks feel about the code base? Have masto fork devs not formed a community, and if so why not?
  • And then of course is your point which is bang on. I've said it before and also elsewhere in this thread ... the lack of chat rooms on the fedi is probably getting kinda bad now. Your argument is pretty scathing (what are the initiatives you mention ... places on discord/matrix?). I noticed the same when I looked into some defed drama and found the only meaningful conversation to have happened on a Discord server. But beyond that so much stuff is happening on Discord (and matrix and the like), it seems, with IMO plenty of arguments for why such a model is a good form of social media (IMO, (micro-)blogosphere-link-aggregator + chat-rooms (optionally closed) seems like an obvious mix), that the fedi might look a little stuck in the past, especially given that it still doesn't have decent private messaging (apart from dansup's venture).
  • As for whether current fedi platforms are insufficient for facilitating communities ... if true, why is that? How did communities form on Twitter for instance? Is the lack of algorithmic feeds part of this ... like, can we now say that as problematic as they were they actually had pro-social effects by disproportionately promoting posts by those you have stronger connections too??! I feel like I've seen the community/group format work ok with the !lemmyapps@lemmy.world, !fediverse@lemmy.world and !fediverse@lemmy.ml communities.
• As to your last point ... yea that's interesting. For my experience, part of that is that I'm strewn across 3.5 different platforms (lemmy, masto, firefish and occasionally checking but not really using kbin) and that there's no real place to go to check up on "that community", in large part I feel because masto and the microblogs don't have groups/communities and in the absence of any sort of algorithm that's honestly fatal for true community development. I often wonder how much masto as a twitter substitute will be an overall "bitter victory" for the fedi at large and those who've bought into it. For me, the ideal of the fediverse is to give people what they need to organise online, and, IMO, masto is not that and the ecosystem, because of the reasons you highlight, hasn't worked out how to provide the necessary diversity.