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I Think Ubuntu 23.10 is Making a Mistake…
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this post was submitted on 03 Sep 2023
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They do have statistics about how many systems send upgrade pings. There are some caveats to that, but I believe the difference with other distros is significant enough for that not to matter.
What other desktop Linux would be more popular? Fedora? Arch?
Linux Mint is even more troublesome, because I believe it uses Ubuntu's repos as well - meaning that they'd be counted in Ubuntu's logs?
That said, with the exception of probably Distrowatch pageviews (which of course have very little relation to actual usage), AFAIK all proxy metrics we have do point to Ubuntu's dominance, as well as anecdotal evidence such as the distros you see people using at e.g. FOSDEM. I'd be interested to see any data that might show otherwise though, but until then, my working hypothesis is that Ubuntu is still the most popular desktop Linux.