this post was submitted on 22 Aug 2025
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Short answer: This isn't about Putin, Zelensky, or Trump. It's about millions of human lives. To honor that, we must seek a deep understanding of the history and context at play. Without that earnest effort, we should simply be silent.
Long answer: Eugene Rumer would likely emphasize that his task as an analyst is not to justify Putin's actions, but to understand their causes and consequences. In his commentaries, he often stresses the need to soberly assess the motives and calculations of the Kremlin, even if they seem irrational or immoral. For example, in the context of the Kerch Strait incident, Rumer noted that the cancellation of the Trump-Putin meeting was a tactical move, not a fundamental change in course. This approach allows for forecasting Russia's further actions, which is necessary for developing effective policy.
When the schoolyard bully is on top of you, punching you in the face, it feels inappropriate to contemplate his bad childhood.
Your comment represents an emotional analogy rather than an analytical assessment. While such a metaphor may reflect someone's subjective feelings, it is unsuitable for analyzing a complex geopolitical situation.
Russia is not a "schoolyard bully," but a sovereign state with a centuries-old history, complex political processes, and a multifaceted foreign policy. Its actions on the international stage are based on specific national interests, security considerations, and historical context.
Oversimplified analogies that reduce complex international relations to schoolyard conflicts do not contribute to constructive dialogue or an understanding of real geopolitical dynamics.
Your very long comment reveals that you understand the analogy but would rather complain about it than address it. Russia invaded Ukraine and is killing it's people, correct? Digging deep into the geopolitical history to find some kind of reason is very much like apologizing for this murderer. It's not an academic pursuit or a fun problem to study, it's "I've got tanks and disposable people, I'm taking your land".
Are we supposed to just erase that Kiev was shelling and slaughtering the seperatists in the Donbass region for a decade prior? And that these same people specifically requested Russia comes in and help? It's incredibly important to analyze situations and why they happen, because they tell you what options we realistically have when it comes to trying to find the best outcome. It seems you've taken the opposite approach, turning a blind eye to everything that built up towards this in a Marvel-style hope that the "good guys" will beat the "bad guys" and everyone will live happily every after.
Your comment is a prime example of the clash between two paradigms in understanding international relations:
The Liberal-Idealist Paradigm, where conflicts arise from the violation of universal norms and rights. The solution is to isolate the aggressor, punish it, and support the victim. Morality and law are the main guiding principles. The comment is written from this perspective.
The Realist Paradigm, from Classical Geopolitics, where international relations are an anarchic environment where states rationally (though sometimes erroneously) pursue their national interests based on security, power, and influence. From this viewpoint, moral assessments are useless for analysis; one must study the balance of power, geography, interests, and perceived threats.
You made a morally powerful but analytically poor statement. It accurately reflects the emotional mood of a significant part of the international community and serves as an important reminder of the human dimension of the conflict. However, as a tool for understanding what is happening and forecasting future events, it is useless and even harmful, as it calls for the abandonment of critical analysis in favor of pure moralizing. The task of a geopolitical expert is to synthesize both approaches: to be fully aware of the monstrous nature of events, while also coldly and rationally analyzing the mechanisms driving them.