this post was submitted on 26 Aug 2025
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Linux is not on the rise lol.
People are locked in to iOS and Android. There is no appreciable number of people who would switch to another ecosystem and lose all their apps, purchases, etc.
More importantly, just like what killed Windows phone, developers won’t support a third platform, nor will customers move to a platform that doesn’t have the big apps that they need - many, if not most, of which are from Google themselves.
Linux has doubled its market share in the last couple years and is on an exponential growth curve right now. Valve's push for Proton and Steam Deck has changed a lot.
Also, if Linux-based, non-Android phones or tablets became fully functional and feature complete, there would absolutely be a good number of people who would switch. I'd be one of them.
Doubling your market share is easy when your market share is so low. It’s not on an “exponential growth curve” lol. The steam deck changes nothing for Linux as most people playing them don’t give a shit about Linux.
Linux gaming users are in the tens of millions of people. It's not like this is some super tiny community. There are more Linux gamers than macOS gamers by around double.
About two years ago Linux gaming market share was hovering below 2%. Now it's over 4%.
Yeah.....it's smaller than Windows by A LOT, but it's continuing to grow every single month on the Steam Hardware Survey. With Proton, SteamOS/Bazzite, and the Deck Verified program, Linux gaming has gone from "this sucks" to "this works unless there is kernel anti-cheat".
Nope, not in the tens of millions:
People using Linux computers at home, including for gaming, is a super tiny "community". Also not close to double Mac, and even if it was - Mac isn't a real gaming platform, so the fact that it's not even double Mac is evidence of how little people care about linux for gaming.
Not on steam it's not.
Purely because of the steam deck, and windows is growing too - not everyone uses steam on windows, whereas it's really the only option for Linux.
And unfortunately for Linux, without this it will never take off because the overwhelmingly most played games all have kernel level anti-cheat.
You seem to look at it quite pessimistically imho, but I'll try and counter ;-)
We're not talking about a vastly different ecosystem. Probably Android-derived (which is open-source), very likely Linux derived. So compatibility is not going to be a huge issue, hence developing not hard. Developers will usually follow where user demand goes, not the other way around.
Most of the big apps today have a smaller equivalent, check AlternativeTo.net.
Generally true, but we're talking a growth of millions of users a year. Millions of people is no small number. 5% of the US' traffic are from Linux desktops, according to StatCounter (here's an article with many links).
You're correct wrt. gaming, as 2.89% of 157 million active monthly users is about 4.55 million, which is not a small number either. If you look at Linux desktop users in the US however, we're talking over 5% of 347 million, which is 17.35 million users in the US alone, which is also not a small number. It's more than the population of Greece and Bulgaria combined.
Do you have numbers? I can't find any official numbers of active users on the Steam Deck, but there are estimations of 3+ million devices sold. I feel like I keep seeing posts of people who move over to Bazzite and similar distros these days for the sake of playing games, but nevertheless, both of these factors weigh in, and are steadily increasing the adaptation of Linux systems.
This is denying the antecedent. The amount of games, and money in games, without KLAC is plenty substantial to make a difference in the approach of both developers and DRMs, further increasing ease of adaptation by users. Do not undermine nor underestimate the potential of marginalities.