this post was submitted on 28 Aug 2025
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Peace only works, if all parties involved are interested in that.
If less than all are interested in that, these are the ones at the short end of the stick who get crushed down by the bullies over and over and over...
Russia need to be made interested in a lasting peace and that is not done by rolling over.
Russia's calculus to invade Ukraine was based off the assumption that they could win in a few days if they invaded, and if they didn't invade, they would have a hostile, NATO-backed state on their border.
The first has proven hilariously wrong, and the second is only possible if Ukraine remains a buffer.
Given that Russia was selling 10y bonds at 17% and wages were skyrocketing due to the war industry tightening the labor market, I'm genuinely quite curious what the local political ramifications will be when Putin doesn't have a war to distract everyone, his fellow billionaires want to cut wages, and loans start to come due.
Now that's a comment I can agree with, except for the part about Ukraine being a hostile country.
The economic situation in Russia might be even more dire than your post makes it seem. Not only were wages skyrocketing due to the war and the war industry causing a labor shortage. A lot of workers apparently aren't getting paid and lots of goods have become more expensive, which should lead to a dwindling domestic demand.
The transformation from a war industry to a regular one will be painful and I dearly hope there will be a lot of pain added by making Russia pay for the damage they've done. Better make them learn the lesson now than at their next attempt.
Without the support of especially China, India and North Korea, but also parts of eastern European countries, the Russian economy would already be in shambles.
But even with money being made from exporting oil and gas, Russia's financial reserve went down a lot over the last years.