Posting this here so that in 3 years I can point to it and say "I told you so!" from a reeducation camp.
In economics and human behavior, sunk cost fallacy is a huge reason why people do what they do, and keep doing what they do. They are invested, they've spent the time and money thinking they'll get something out of it. It's why people who haven't caught a fish all day going on 5 hours, will spend 2 more hours out on the lake.
Based on the inauguration, the tech broligarchs are heavily invested in the current situation. And if you listen to them talk, they genuinely don't care WHO it is that makes what they want happen actually happen, they just want it to happen.
Humans also hate instability. While what's happening now reminds me SOOOooooo much of what I've seen in developing countries in terms of corruption, what those countries also suffer from is the whiplash effect of changing powers. If a new party comes into power everything will change. Not just who's in the WH, also who's on The Hill.
At some point, all the money and Gerrymandering in the world can't stop people from voting out of anger and going for the other guys, as milquetoast as they are.
So what should we expect? Midterms in 2026 will be bad, and I would bet a beer that we'll see a couple contested results that end up with a R/D even split, or sliiight D majority that will suddenly and surprisingly get rendered null because or some shenanigans. Either way, don't expect a slight D majority in the house to actually end up meaning something.
As for '28, I fully expect something to happen that counts as a full on constitutional crisis if it happened today, but by then will just be "Oh, you silly, we didn't expect that!" The GOP will run a primary, because it's a money-maker. But when a suitable heir apparent doesn't bubble up, then why on earth would El Jefe leave? (Short of newly religious Peter Theil running as a dark horse that the GOP would LOOOOVE)
And who will keep him there? Why all those donors and people that lined up to give him things. All the people he's locked out of their $T coin wallets for "reasons" that will get access back just in time to donate half of the value as a kickback. This level of chaos is something that these people can manipulate for enrichment, and something that they don't want to give up. Why let your Orange Goose fly away when he can write an EO declaring an emergency and suspending the 22nd Amendment?
Let's recall that the most recent historical attempt at an American coup was the "Business Plot" where oligarchs in 1933 wanted to overthrow Roosevelt and install a dictator, but the guy got cold feet. In 2028 you won't have to look that far to find the guy willing to stay around, and who has a tendency to help that along, but also will be willing to make it worth your while.
To anyone reading this in Nov 2028, please send a T-800 back to us to explain how to undo it all.
Vance has the charisma of a fire hydrant, just like Pence, he's expendable and has fulfilled his purpose. I expect the only "acceptable" heir will be newly religious Theil.