this post was submitted on 28 Sep 2025
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I don't think it was 'about to surrender' in the way your interpreting.
don't get me wrong, it was a war of annihilation - on the 6th the US drops the bomb on Hiroshima, on the 8th the soviets flood 1m+ soldiers into manchuria, the next day the US drops on Nagasaki, then on the 10th the emperor breaks the deadlock in the cabinet.
On the 15th the Emperor makes the radio address and it's pretty much over.
https://www.nationalww2museum.org/war/articles/japans-surrender-military-coup-1945
the problem is there's a LOT of moving parts on both sides trying to figure out if it's over or just the beginning of another series of conflicts that will split japan between the western allies and the soviets - something I think the Japanese feared more than actual destruction.
I'm definitely interpreting their words correctly, something along the lines of "investigations have shown that Japan would've surrendered even without dropping the bombs."
I didn't fact check this of course, but I assume the museum did. In the end it's difficult to say for sure, there were a lot of variables like you said, but that is the conclusion that the museum came up with