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They never admit they were just wrong
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this post was submitted on 24 Sep 2023
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It's because of a drop in child mortality which hasn't yet been matched by a drop in the fertility rate:
https://www.newsecuritybeat.org/2023/07/nigerias-demographic-moment-wishful-thinking/
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SPDYNIMRTINNGA
To layman's terms, people used to make 5 children and 3 of them would die. Then this mortality has dropped. People still make 5 children. The country has too much children. The country is really young and very few per capita are susceptible to covid.
The opposite happens in Western countries. Old people don't die. People don't make children anymore. Population is really old, covid really affects a lot of people per capita.
Makes sense. Thanks for the info!