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Homes "unaffordable" in 99% of nation for average American
(www.cbsnews.com)
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this post was submitted on 01 Oct 2023
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I don't disagree that spending less on transportation helps to save for a down payment. Finding inexpensive and reliable cars is not an easy task, but for people who were lucky, like myself, to find one it makes one chunk of the budget easier to stomach.
I own a home, so I'm not speaking from a place of woe is me, but from a position of empathy.
Don't forget you have to qualify for your mortgage, even if you have a downpayment. Lenders will let you spend up to a max of 43% (and most far less than that) of your pretax income on your mortgage payment. If you're the average household, 6275 * .43= $2698.25 monthly maximum payment. The average home price is $420,385 as we established earlier. Minus our down payment you could almost (but not quite) afford the loan with a PITI of 43%, the new payment would be around $2700/month with interest rates as they are today around 7.5%. But let's say you are above average income wise for the sake of the narrative.
Oh shoot, $2700/month? That changes our household budget, now you're spending at least an extra $800/month not including maintenance, utilities, and the many other expenses that come with home ownership. If you take that money out of your transportation budget you're left with $300/month, hope you don't have any surprise expenses! If your property taxes go up you have to give up something to afford it. Lose your job, lose your house. Paycheck to paycheck for the next 30 years, sounds like a nightmare to me.
On top of that affordability is getting worse, living expenses are rising, wages aren't rising as quickly, the average person who didn't luck into a home already will be less and less likely to afford one.
In my area, the average is right around $450k, so I think we're pretty representative of the rest of the US. I did a quick search, and I saw a dozen or so listings for townhouse around $300-350k. If we look at the top end, with a 20% down payment ($70k), the mortgage+HOA is ~$2500/month. If we look at the bottom end, it's ~$2300. I even see one as low as $2k/month. Note, this doesn't include utilities or maintenance. So for an average household income of $6275, we're looking at 30-37% of your income for the mortgage + HOA.
Rent for a similar place (2-3 bed, 2 bath) is $1500-2000. So it is currently cheaper to rent in terms of cash flow, but buying keeps your payment constant (inflation will be on your side) and builds equity, so longer term it should still be cheaper to own vs rent.
Are you assuming a massive $800/month transportation budget or something?
Let's assume $6275/month income, here's a budget that I think makes sense:
So, the major expenses come out to ~$5100/month. Add in another $500 or so for other stuff, and $5600 is a decent spending estimate. That leaves $600-700/month for savings, or 10-11%. Typical retirement savings goal is 10-15%, and that could be met by trimming some of these expenses by $200-250/monthn (a lot of that is taxes if going for pretax investments).
So yes, mortgage rates and property values certainly make things difficult, but I hope I've showed that it's not as hopeless and many people assume. I think the average household could own a house and still save 10-15% of their pretax income. They'd need to drive older cars, but nothing unreasonable (5-15 years old; both of my cars are 15+ years old and have minimal maintenance costs).
Unfortunately, the average person seems to suck at budgeting, which is why I say it's more often a budgeting problem instead of an income problem. The important thing is to establish good budgeting habits early, and then the focus should be on increasing income. Ideally, as your income rises, your spending doesn't rise as quickly, so you end up with more cash flow as you get to the point where you want to invest in a house.