As a GM, I tend to think about encounters in quite a different way. First, if I have a location which I require the players to go to, for an adventure to happen—typically at the start of a campaign—I'll start at scene one, "Okay, you're there!" then ask the players why and how their characters have decided to go there.

This is no different from making sure that adventurers ARE adventurers, or wannabe adventurers, not shopkeepers or farmers or blacksmiths. Sure, you can have a "fish out of water" scenario, but, in general, you want the premise of each character to be compatible with adventuring.

In the case of encounters, I tend to think about the landscape, the ecosystem, and the logic of the world.

If there are ogres about, what do they eat? Where do they get their supplies? What other ogres or other creatures do they interact with? Once you start tracking the activities of the monsters and the rest of the world, then the whole thing starts to feel a lot more logical.

Smart players will start to make logical conclusions, from the evidence of their presence, that encounters may happen. Even if they never actually encounter an ogre, they'll see the overgrown roadway, and wonder why the road is not in use. They may find the deer guts, and wonder who gutted it before crrying it away. I let the particular flow of the story emerge from the logic of the world, and what the characters do in it, rather than focusing on "narrative beats".

What this means, of course, is that you have to design the context carefully, so that it's both coherent and challenging. And you have to operate the active parts of the world, even when the players don't interact with them.