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this post was submitted on 24 Oct 2023
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The windows phone was not out for very long. It is unknown if it would have succeed, but at the time Android was an also ran as well, and non-smart phones still dominated. Blackberry was still a major player to beat at the time. Windows if they stuck with it might have done reasonably well. It would never have become a monopoly, but we cannot know how well it would have done.
To be fair, Windows Mobile had been out for many years. The very first convergence phone I ever used was a Windows Mobile phone, iPaq 6315 or something like that, a solid 2 years before the first iPhone came out. Still used a stylus, but it was showing us what the future was.
I think it's a safe prediction considering the number of large manufacturers that have gone under between then and now leaving us with just the Galaxy, IPhone, and Pixel outside of remaining 'boutique' manufacturers that don't really sell any volume.
What year was Android an also-ran?
2013: 51.8% Android, 40.6% iOS, 3.8% Blackberry, 3.3% Microsoft
https://www.comscore.com/Insights/Press-Releases/2014/2/comScore-Reports-December-2013-US-Smartphone-Subscriber-Market-Share