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this post was submitted on 04 Jul 2023
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Most of the climate change predictions I've heard in my lifetime have talked about stuff that would happen by 2050 or 2100. It's always been bullshit, just a way of pushing out the consequences beyond a timeframe we can actually conceive of effectively. In reality this shit is already hitting us and accelerating hard.
2050 isn't really that far away. if you remember the year 2000, that's about how long.
My nephew will be 38 in 2050. Sure makes it seem a lot closer.
Well, I started hearing "2050" in the 1980s and it seemed impossibly far off. 2100 really ain't that far off either.
I’ve always thought those predictions were listed as “conservative” so the average is a lot closer but main media outlets pick the fastest out point in the bell curve so it’s not so doomed.
Yeah, it's not bullshit to be conservative with climate models because they are incredibly complex. It's good practice. However, because of the political climate around climate change, scientists probably er on the side of being extra-conservative, and the models are still dire! So, if the real world trends happen to go outside the bell curve, not in our favor, which keeps happening, we're fucked.
2050 is less than 3 decades away. I am sure I will be dead by then, but someone born this millennium should absolutely be alive still. What is infuriating is how little importance many younger people put on this issue.