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Aah 2024 will be a disaster?
(lemmygrad.ml)
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this post was submitted on 19 Dec 2023
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GenZedong
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Possible rare Chinese L? To my understanding the Houthis have only been striking shipping in some way associated with Israel, and joining forces with the imperialist crackerverse to safeguard their shipping during an ongoing genocide seems like a probable L to me.
That said, looking up "Prosperity Guardian" (even the name sounds like typical Anglo-fascist BS) doesn't give any impression of Chinese involvement. Just a bunch of "international community" nations, and two tiny island nations that may as well be microstates (Bahrain and Seychelles) tagging along for the ride, probably for western optics.
Granted, not much is known about the operation and unlike what we've come to expect from Western militaries that like to show their full hand, information remains limited. The Wikipedia page is sparse and relatively unsourced, and military public affairs have been tight lipped. Chinese involvement would be more or less guaranteed though, firstly as they signed off on the Operation despite their Security Council veto power, and along with the US and France, they operate the largest UN air and naval force in Djibouti.
Your understanding about what the Houthis have been doing is correct, and while it is a good cause, it is still in violation of international law, while simultaneously threatening the economies of a vast number of nations. That puts it a bit into perspective about why China and Russia haven't taken to kindly to the strikes, and why international opinion is particularly cold, even from Pro-Palestine nations. It is allying with the Western world, but I doubt Chinese officials would take to kindly to a major threat to one of the worlds largest maritime logistics points, especially as they are an exporter nation and rely on their goods making it cheaply and quickly to their target nations.
The name is definitely goofy though lol. I swear they just have some intern putting all these names into a random generator at this point.
Wikipedia is not a good source of information about China's military.Just because there are three warships nearby doesn't mean we have to take part in military operations.
I was just giving an example of how spare information is. I know Wikipedia isn’t a good source.
Further, China has far more then three ships in the region, three ships is actually the confirmed American contribution to the task force. The rest of the composition is unknown.
Because they are considered UN assets requisitioned for anti piracy duty, unless China withdrawals diplomatically from the operations in the Red Sea and Indian Ocean, they cannot willing ignore orders from the task force unless the orders violate international law. The ships aren’t “Chinese” when they are participating, they’re UN, hence the international officers corp leading the task force and ships.
China is part of the operations in those waters willingly and have been for decades, hence their very own port, military base, and airport in Djibouti that were built for them.
Please keep up the criticism. You've been taking a lot of flak for contesting the idea that Ansarallah will have carte blanche to disrupt Red Sea shipping. But it's important to do that if we're to predict anything. And it's all hard enough to predict as it is, at the moment.
Thank you, that means quite a lot to hear you say that. Like you already pointed out, I’m just trying to add context and pushback to a very delicate and tense political situation where what’s going on isn’t clear cut and hardly heading towards an obvious conclusion.
I just hope that my context does not come across as disparaging the actions of the Ansarallah or supporting any action that might be taken against them, as I fully support what they are doing, and the cause they are doing it for. It just seems that it’s really easy for most to get lost in pure ideological support and forget that actions such as these have international consequences.
Like you also mentioned, making conclusions or predictions is a fools errand with how early in the situation it is, but it’s important to have all the available information before making any conclusions.
I understand why China and Russia- exporter nations- wouldn't take kindly to the strikes. But if what you suspect (of Chinese involvement) is true, joining the west in what amounts to imperial policing actions on behalf of a state actively committing genocide, I'd say it's not a good look.
Maybe China can provide some moderation within these operations (kinda doubt it). I suppose that's the best-case scenario. But the Houthis aren't, say, ISIS- and there's always going to be some discomfort from the notion of China going alongside with such actions. If you ask me it strikes me as reminiscent- if not at all in scale- to how the eight nation alliance "policed" and terrorized China back during the Boxer rebellion, and I would wonder if these actions might wind up being counterproductive for China and its reputation with average citizens within the region- governments will understand, sure, but the common folk may not, and I wouldn't blame them at all for it.
I can only hope that you’re right.
https://twitter.com/RnaudBertrand/status/1738212826144243786
So out of the 12 initial countries in "Operation Prosperity Guardian" against the Houthis, Spain basically said "wth guys? we never agreed to join this!", Australia is like "no way we're sending a ship" and France has already withdrawn...