this post was submitted on 09 Jan 2024
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For there to be a civil war, both sides need an army. The US president will have the US army, and the other side might as well have nerf guns. The civil war would last an afternoon.
If there's going to be anything, it's an increase in domestic terrorism.
That's what a modern civil war will look like.
Have you read CIA reports?
Flash pogroms and terrorism. Sometimes by law enforcement. In other words, not a stand up fight, but a bug hunt.
That's what's going to suck. The war might only last a couple months but I can't imagine months of bombings and violent demonstrations in every city across the U.S.
Furthermore, the American Civil War was precluded by several decades of escalating tension between the states, not between parties in the federal government. The legal and organizational attributes of a state also served to enable separatist states to even attempt to raise an army (this was by design). Bubba and his buddies will, as you said, be armed with nerf guns comparatively
There's also no real fiscal incentive. Morality and freedom are important and all, but we fight wars for financial gain.
That and the three letter agencies have so much incompressible amount of power that any real revolution/civil war is damn near impossible.
Plus, who really wants to abandon modern living to die in some urban street combat?
Fascists think they do
Once they hear the cracking of gunshots fires in their direction, they’ll start rethinking their decisions.
It would be a guerilla collective against a conventional force that's consistently failed against guerilla tactics.
There's no way to know how long it'd last or how it'd impact politics, but targeted acts of terrorism in cities would likely become a more common tragedy. It would pretty much gaurantee US states increasing their police forces and personal rights eroding, and I'm not looking forward to that.