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this post was submitted on 18 Jan 2024
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This is so fucking stupid.
Pros:
Cons:
Biden is fucking EVERYTHING up. He's fucking up the middle east, he's fucking up his reelection, and in turn he's going to fuck us all right back into the Trump dimension.
This is SO fucking stupid.
What's with these anti American hot takes that don't make any sense.
Your proposal is what exactly, to let Iranian backed terrorists to disrupt like 20% of the global shipping?
That would be fucking stupid.
I think your comment illustrates one of the biggest problems with our foreign policy.
We appear to have completely lost our ability to think laterally or strategically. I get why my comment seems crazy when you think our only options are "ATTACK" and "surrender".
We need a strategic solution. The Houthis WANT a direct confrontation. They've said so, and their behavior is consistent with that. To figure out how to get them to stop, we need to ask: why on god's green earth do a group of Yemeni rebels WANT a fight with the United States??
The short answer is that they hate us deeply for the incredible violence and destruction we inflicted on them and continue to inflict on them and the people they sympathize with. And we've destroyed so much of Yemen that they have nothing to lose. We turned it into a hellscape wasteland, so there is nothing more we can really threaten them with, and dying a proud and defiant death is pretty much the best offer on the menu. Plus, they know that if we fight, it'll hurt us badly, just like all the last few wars have. We'll spend too much, probably send troops eventually, and ultimately leave having accomplished nothing. And any surviving militants will declare victory and rule over ashes. Afghanistan provided a very appealing model of how to defeat the US.
So, strategically, what if... they had a reason to not want to die? What if ... I don't know, we negotiated with partners in the region to help them grow some crops, and maybe provide them with a new security arrangement where we don't just sweep in every 10 years and light all their children and grandparents on fire? And concurrently, what if we tried to find ways to reduce their access to weapons?
Violence is not going to work. The region is spiraling out of control, and blowing everything up is easier for all the desperate radicals we've created across multiple nations than protecting our shipping lanes is for us. If violence no longer carries deterrence, it's only utility is extermination. And if we embrace extermination, we radicalize more people. You can't eradicate out of that situation, and trying just turns you into another of history's great monsters.
It's bad. We need to rediscover the concept of strategy.
If you let them do this with no response every idiot nation with a coastline is going to think shooting civilian sailors is a good way to get shit done.
Allowing them to get away with it is escalatory for the world.
First, the logic works in reverse, too. If they are trying to pull us into a confrontation that they believe benefits them, allowing them to do so also demonstrates a tool for controlling the US that others will be motivated to use, and is also escalatory.
The problem is that we only think in personal, school yard fight terms. We're act sad though each country has a singular, logically operating decision making process. In reality, international actors are much more like natural phenomena, like mold growth or rabbit populations.
I'm not saying the school yard logic is baseless. When the US flinches, that definitely affects how Xi Jinping assesses our willingness to respond with force to a recapture of Taiwan, for instance. But: whether he decides to do that is not based primarily on whether he thinks the country as a whole has balls or not. It's based on a combination of benefits and draw backs.
So in the long run, if we wanted to prevent unification by force, we're far better off engineering conditions that make unification a bad deal, even if we look weak rather than make it appealing enough to go to war even if we seem likely to destabilize the whole world over it
Yeah, I thought one of his strong points was supposed to be foreign policy, but his stance on Israel has isolated the US and seems to be fueling chaos in the Middle East. If he wanted to just say "I'll do what I want, I'm the president", he could have at least had the decency to not seek reelection and doom us all.
Lol. Okay.
I don't understand what part of that you're scoffing at.
The part where the US has isolated itself.
It has not.
The real mistake may have been attempting to pivot to Iran in an attempt to reinstate the JCPOA. As admirable a goal as that is, I also think it's clear Trump squandered any trust Iran had in the US when he cancelled it. Iran has taken the Biden admin's overtures as an opportunity to test its regional influence, instead of being a good faith negotiating partner - and why would the Biden admin have expected anything else when the US hadn't been a good faith partner? Trump was awful on foreign policy, and set middle-east peace back decades, but Biden has completely failed to understand and adapt to the new status quo.
Part of me thinks, we’ll see Hilary2.0 unfolding in 2024. He should have picked Newsom and stepped down.
I hate Newsom. But you're right, Biden looks like he's going down in flames. I think he's counting on Trump going to jail, because head-to-head, unless something changes, Trump is getting set up to coast to victory. It's horrifying to watch.
I wouldn't go so far as to say "coast to victory", I think both men are deeply disliked by factions of their electorate and thus could lose, but if it was literally anyone but Trump, I'd say it's already a foregone conclusion.