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this post was submitted on 20 Jul 2023
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Technology
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I never said how long I expected it to take, how do you know we even disagree there? But like, is 50 years a long time to you? Personally anything less than 100 would be insanely quick. The key point is I don't have a high certainty on my estimates. Sure, might be perfectly reasonable it takes more than 50, but what chance is there it's even quicker? 0.01%? To me that's a scary high number! Would you be happy having someone roll a dice with a 1 in 10000 chance of killing everyone? How low is enough?
I'll be dead.
The odds are higher that Russia nukes your living area.
Well I wont be, and just because one thing might be higher probability than another, doesn't mean it's the only thing worth worrying about.
The likelihood of an orca coming out of your asshole is just as likely as a meteor coming from space and blowing up your home.
Both could happen, but are you going to shape your life around whether or not they occur?
Your concern of AI should absolutely be pitted towards the governments and people using it. AI, especially in its current form, will not be doing a human culling.
Humans do that well enough already.