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this post was submitted on 29 Jan 2024
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It's not just about if Russia can manage without Europe/USA, it's about Europe managing without Russia.
So ok, China and India actively supports and essentially bankrolls Russias colonization strategy and this might show as growth. So in short, it's possible for Putin to rearrange his business, sell oil below market price, and show growth, but in the long run its not a viable solution to run a country on.
Add to this the cost of war and loss of manpower. 3-400 000 might seem like a small amount of people when Russia has a population of 147 000 000. But it's not. It's Russia slowly slowly depleating their civilian workforce in a situation where Russia has a declining birth rate with 2023 being the lowest since 2014.
So if shit was going so great, Russian salaries would have skyrocketed and Russia would have their top model tanks on the battlefield but none of that is happening. Instead we see a lot of weird shit from the former Soviet Union on the battlefield. Add to this that back in October there were a lot of press about Russians having less money for necessities than anytime in the last 5 years.
So while Putin has seen no change in quality of life, rest assured that the average Russian has less money to spend on necessities.
Remember: Putin and his friends has been peddling the "everything is A-okay"-bullshit for over a year now but it's just propaganda. Even though there might be periods where Russian economy looks like it's going great it's just not true for the long perspective.
When you get chemo it kills both ordinary cells and cancer cells. However, the body is normally capable of producing more cells than a tumor which means that with enough time more tumor than body will disappear.
While we hurt, Russia hurts more and that's a good thing.
I hope so, it just feels so bleak now after everything was looking semi-promising for the past two years (Ukraine successes outnumbered Russia successes). Maybe alot of that was just Ukranian propaganda, but it feels like over the past two months or so the general momentum of the war has turned somewhat against Ukraine. You've got US support held up by ~~Russia's 5th column~~ the GOP and you've got Russia launching a massive sustained assault across all fronts. Hopefully it ends up working against Russia and they burn themselves out and get opened up to a counter-attack, but after two years of constant battle reports from Ukraine, it feels like there's a noticeable decline in good news from the front.
That's to be expected, defensive war is always easier than an offensive one. And Ukraine switched from defensive to offensive.