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Tesla's CEO optimistic on progress for self-driving, robots
(www.reuters.com)
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this post was submitted on 21 Jul 2023
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I'm not even sure 10-15 years is good. They've been 10-15 years for 10-15 years already. I'm personally at the point where they're square in the "flying cars" category (which is coming "real soon now"!).
Detecting things is easy. Finding the road and following it is easy. Stopping the car when an obstruction is in the way is easy. What's not easy are the 100,000 things that the developers haven't thought of that happen in a real-world dynamic environment. And it's a situation where lives are at stake so you need to get those right.
And then there is the issue that we already have "self-driving cars" in the form of light rail, busses, taxis, etc.
I think the combination of human driver with "AI Assist" for cruise control, avoiding obstacles, and other things is likely the way to go for cars for some time.