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The Coming War on General Computation [2011]
(en.wikisource.org)
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Oh. I think the idea of a paperclip optimiser/maximiser is that it's created by accident. Either do to an AGI emerging accidentally within another system, or a deliberately created AGI being buggy. It would still be able to self-improve, but wouldn't do it in a direction that seems logical to us.
I actually think it's the most likely possibility right now, personally. Nobody understands how neural nets really work, and they're bad at doing things in meatspace like would be required in a robot army scenario. Maybe whatever elites will overcome that, or maybe they'll screw up.