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this post was submitted on 11 Feb 2024
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This is the conversation created by the system. There were many other candidates than biden in 2020, but the party colluded to make biden the presidential nominee. Nothing stopped democrats from running a different candidate this year either except some superstition about the "incumbent advantage". Remember when that incumbent advantage worked in trump's favor in 2020...? Oh wait, it's all bullshit when your favorability rating is so damn low like it is for biden right now. It's okay, if we close our eyes and ears and scream "BUT THE OTHER GUY" loud enough, I'm sure it'll all work out. We should be asking why the machine only has two buttons, starting from a low bar and only going lower.
Sounds like a great moment to remember this:
The Democratic party should act in accordance to what its members want to believe is most appropriate, not what its elites impose on them.
We probably agree overall but I gotta point out: in political science, it’s definitely not considered superstition. If it were just throwing salt over the shoulder, we wouldn’t be able to consistently verify the hypothesis. It remains one of the stronger electoral advantages for outcome prediction.
That tangarine palpatine lost in spite of this advantage is more a testament to his lack of popularity among the general electorate. And btw one of the strongest known DISadvantages is having lost an election previously. The quants will have a field day with this one either way.
TL;DR Incumbency advantage is real.
A result of FPTP-voting and the way campaigns are financed. What you get is exactly what the old roman aristocrats intended, when they designed this system over 2 millenia ago to maintain influence: keeping money where the power is and vice versa.
By "the party" you mean millions of voters? Or do you also just deny their agency?
Billions upon billions of dollars are spent on advertising and media and you think that this has no influence in a party-controlled process where the party can decide to tell others to drop and support a single candidate.
Name two states in the primary where Biden and someone under the age of retirement were running (and not dropped out and endorced Biden) that Biden won. SC and ???