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this post was submitted on 19 Feb 2024
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Everyone here will complain, but as a very happy hybrid owner, I say good. I'd like an all electric, but current battery tech and places to charge them for people who don't live in a house just can't be ready in the next 6 years.
Fixing them after a crash is way more expensive or they just get totaled out. They weigh a lot more. If you have a battery problem past 100,000 miles it costs way too much to replace the battery on your own. A 300 mile range ev will only go like 220 in cold weather. The 8 year 100k warranty on batts just needs to still have barely over 2/3 capacity to not be covered.
In a country like the US where people have to drive so far to get many places, trying to force EV so quickly when we still need better battery tech and a better form of regulation on how much charging stations cost there's just too much to work on that quickly. EV's sold today will not stay road worthy as long as a hybrid can. Hybrids still reduce pollution by a decent amount, weigh less, and due to putting much less strain on the ice and transmission will often be capable of going over 300,000 miles before a major component fails. When the battery inevitably goes bad they're much easier and lighter and cheaper to replace. When an all EV that's 15 years old has a bad battery its just getting thrown away. The literal millions of people who have to rely on buying older vehicles used for under $10,000 to get by would essentially completely dry up in an all ev country unless they risk becoming the bagholder of one with an old battery that could suddenly fail that would cost them much more than the price they paid for the vehicle just to replace.
I can't wait for the EV future and even work for a manufacturer building them... But this post is the reality in the US market right now.
The cars are too expensive, the charging infrastructure is not there for people living in apartments (which at least where I live, accounts for the majority of new housing construction), our local power grid is already sagging because we haven't built a power plant in decades... And a significant amount of people have commutes totaling or exceeding 80mi (round trip) because the jobs are in the city, but don't pay well enough to live there, so they have to rent in the more rural towns and rely on the interstates to get around.
Could we, in America, make the 2030 deadline? Perhaps, but only if the government actually did something about it. We would need a massive infrastructure investment, we would need some regulations that define the cars requirements that are something other than "doesn't blow smoke". We would need a more aggressive subsidization program (like most of the other countries that are attempting to push heavy EV adoption)... And above all, it needs to be affordable to everyone, not just the person looking to swap out their BMW or Lexus for the new hotness. It's gotta be affordable to the blue collar hard worker that is currently driving a late 90s pickup truck, or an early 2000s Camry. It's gotta be affordable to the family that is buying a four-owner minivan. And it can't be just because you point out "But the electricity is cheaper than gas! You'll save in the long run..." Because they'd rather pay for the convenience and peace of mind that comes from knowing there's a filing station every 10 miles, vs having to plan their existence around 30min charging stops.
If battery tech improves and range anxiety disappears, along with better rapid charging? None of this will be an issue anymore. Because that's what everyone I've talked to is worried about: range and charging time. They want their replacement car to be BETTER than what it replaced. As would everyone, no? Especially when dealing with Americans, asking them the assign value to 'being efficient/good for the environment' doesn't work. So yes, you've spent more up front, you've reduced the total distance you can drive on a full tank, you made refueling a hassle, and have to also hire a contractor to wire up charging capability in your garage. But you are now personally less responsible for carbon emissions!
...it's a hard sell. What's also a hard sell: I am one person. I do not need an SUV. I drive a coupe Civic right now... Where's my compact econobox EV? Do I have to buy a big luxury sedan or SUV (or truck! Though I appreciate Ford and Rivian for making those options available) just to have an EV?
This is my main problem with EVs today: They don't make one I actually want. I have a small wagon and a hatchback, and those body styles aren't available in an EV.
The prices will eventually come down, but will they ever actually make an EV I want to buy? Will that EV charge me a monthly fee for features? Will it track all my data and send it back to the car company? Like you said, I'll buy an EV if it's even a modest improvement, but the ones I see are actually worse that both cars I have now.