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this post was submitted on 15 Apr 2024
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It overtook Sydney about a year ago when the ABS revised the statistical areas: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-65261720
Based on these new boundaries Melbourne's had a higher population than Sydney since 2018.
Conveniently, that article also answers one of my questions.
It's not super clear how Melton, with this definition, catapulted Melbourne ahead. My best guess is that there was one suburb needed to connect the rest of Melton into Melbourne which has only just reached the threshold, which allowed the entire urban centre of Melton to be added?
Even more interesting is how all of Geelong is excluded from Melbourne's count when Gosford's included in Sydney's count, despite neither place being continuously connected to the larger city, Geelong being closer to Melbourne than Gosford is to Sydney, and Geelong having just as large a proportion of daily commuters as Gosford.
The reality is that Melbourne's population outpaced Sydney a long time ago and the boundaries are only just starting to catch up.