but those are likely to be repeat offenders, so i'm not actually sure that how that would effect it.

The raw number of rapes will go up, but rapists will probably rise quite a bit less.

Statistics is hard >:(

Correct.

Every time a woman gets attacked there is a large contingent of the population who start to blame the fact that they weren't living under the assumption of being in danger from men. In this post's comment section you can see people making comments about not carrying a gun, not taking self defense seriously, etc. These are also often people who are in the "not all men" crowd. So women are shit on both for treating men like a danger, while also being shit on for not doing just that. People will also demand that women, in any social environment, discuss the subject in a dispassionate, and clinical, manner, or in a warm and friendly manner, in which the subject, men, are treated with kid gloves. Who gives a shit that this has left the person speaking with life long trauma issues, you better be nice about it, or it's your fault nothing changes. This is the type of thing that is the problem here. This isn't the only commonly seen way women are forced into a catch 22 situation. Society has pushed them into an impossible situation where, no matter what they do, they are wrong. I think society, especially men, have to come to terms with just how insanely prolific harassment, and violence, directed at women, primarily from men, is.

Another trend you commonly see, when this topic comes up, is people doing any mental gymnastics possible, to either claim it's way blown out of proportion, while all people who work in, or study, this subject are pretty much in universal agreement that the reality of it is actually far worse than what we have on record. That, or they cry "but men too" ignoring that men are far less likely to be on the receiving end of this behavior, and also primarily victimized by other men when they are. When I was doing data analysis for the corrections system I found out (through experts on the subject, I didn't discover this) that, while disparities in antisocial behaviors within different demographics of people based on things like, race/ethnicity/culture/etc., narrow as the economic, and societal status, disparity of that demographic narrows, the same cannot be said for the disparity between men and women. While men of good economic, and societal, standing are less likely to act in antisocial ways over-all, the disparity between them, and women in similar standing, stays roughly the same.

Without society, men in particular, coming to an understanding about this, rather than too just knee-jerk reject it, claiming so many reasons, that seem logical on a very surface level, to "prove" their position, we will never be able to truly begin to tackle the issue at hand. The deepest rooted, worst issues, are between men and women, but men are also the reason for that proportion of violence, and other antisocial behavior, towards men. Where men are more often the victim than women, such as murder, men are also responsible for the vast majority of it. The societal structures that encourage, at least on the environment side, this at a systemic level are also the product of men being largely in control. We have greatest control over the creation of an array of cultures, the most prevalent of which, at the very least, create an environment that allows this continue, sometimes even promoting aspects of it. In order for this to happen men, collectively, are going to have come to terms that the women's side of this conversation will often have hostility, and many other negative emotions, woven into it, because they are relaying their trauma. While speaking about deeply, personally, emotional things, It is not realistic to expect anything else.