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this post was submitted on 31 May 2024
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Trumpers ain't leaving Trump. 100%.
But Trump voters aren't all Trumpers. The RNC isn't a monolith. Plenty of them went with Trump as the most likely to win.
But now there is blood in the water. My guess is that there is between 10-15% of Trump voters who are die hard Trumpers who won't move on from Trump, maybe ever. The rest are on a spectrum that can be moved. There is at least a non-zero percent of voters that for them, but if he's seen as no longer viable... well that does change things. Perception matters a lot here. Its the electability aspect, that a felon just can't become elected.
If its 3-10% of Republican likelies, that's a huge difference.
10-15%? Trump won the republican primary in 2016. There are more than half of Republicans that support Trump. That race wasn't even close. The recent one was absurd how much it favored him.
Republicans don't care about "electability" anymore. I don't think anyone does, for their own chosen candidate. Biden certainly doesn't look too good, but he's got firm support as well. The optics thing has flown the coop.
Trump will be nominated even if he is in jail. As far as whether he is elected, we will find out.
I think you misunderstand me or I wasnt clear enough.
I meant that there will be a 10-15% cohort still voting Trump in 2040 after he's dead and buried because that was a 'false' flag and actually Trump was JFK and actually his robot soul was captured by Neuralink and if you write his name enough times on a mirror backwards then he'll become president Jesus again. Like there are 10-15% of people who will be voting for Trump, regardless of who the nominee is, and may never vote for anyone ever again.
I also think there are gradations within the RNC. I don't think its a monolith. I think some, probably about as many those who can-not, can be moved away from Trump, not for moral or any kind of 'good' reasons, other than voting for him seems like a less strategic vote.
He might still end up being the nominee. But like the DNC, the RNC has no commitment to follow the will of their voters. If he is in jail and can't directly influence things, who knows.