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this post was submitted on 31 May 2024
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There is a recursive aspect to polling, which is that 'electability' which polling performance is a part of, impacts polling.
I'm putting my called shot that by mid June when its time to run the numbers, I expect Trump to drop to a rage of about 35-40, probably coming in at a clean 37. I also expect Biden's polling to drop in that time period, from around 40 where he is now to maybe 38, 39.
The next two weeks might be the first time in the last 400 days were Trump lags Biden in overall polling.
Interestingly, this would also be in a period where both candidates are trending downward in overall polling numbers. Trumps numbers have been dropping consistently over the course of the trial, while Biden's has effectively abandoned the youth and progressive vote for (???).
Trump, at least as of last week, enjoyed a significantly higher approval rating than Biden; Biden's approval rating is still lower than any one-term president at this equivalent point in their presidency. In a sane world this would put Biden at a no-brainer, mortgage your house and put it all on "L" for Biden in the betting markets, but with Trump doing.. whatever this all is, its a race to the bottom in terms of who can be the least popular candidate(s) in electoral history.
Statisitcally, no candidate has won a second term with an approval rating as low as either Joe Biden or Donald Trump currently enjoys (although, the Trump comparison is a bit weird because of the three one term president that ever ran again, only Grover Cleveland was successful (only president to ever serve two non-consecutive terms).