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Are We in an AI Bubble?
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this post was submitted on 02 Jun 2024
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Pretty much all technology goes through the same odd shape of adoption.
https://www.infusedinnovations.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/Screen-Shot-2020-10-10-at-8.46.48-AM-1.png
What is often really hard to tell is where you are until your definitely in the trough of Disillusionment. We could be practically very early on the way up and human level or above AI is coming or near the peak of Inflated expectations and its about to crash down before finally finding a use that is less hype and more worthwhile. The regulation will certainly slow things down a bit towards the peak.
I am not sure whether slightly better chat bots that still lie and image generators that do look reasonably good is the peak or just the beginning. Progress has been dramatic in the past years since invention but the cost of training is now immense and it requires a breakthrough to make big steps of improvement and I am not sure if we are going to make that. A lot of billionaire money riding on it.
The trough of disillusionment is definitely already there in academia but the market forces that be override that with massive amounts of hype, silicon, and YOLO. Billionaire capital and attitude can provide that, it can't provide basic research, because velocity is valued way higher than going anywhere sensible.