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U.S. Considers Expanded Nuclear Arsenal, a Reversal of Decades of Cuts
(www.nytimes.com)
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Unless the enemy can intercept the missiles, then you need more to guarantee first strike capability.
If you need 500 nukes to hit and the enemy can destroy 90% of missiles then you build 5000+
Again, that's more about delivery systems than just having more nukes. The capacity to intercept comes down to how fast and stealthy the missiles are.