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this post was submitted on 12 Jun 2024
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While having a dozen in operation might be good, we need the ability to produce 100k of them in a month (including all the supply chain for that!). If the world gets into a war between any of NATO (US), Russia, China, India you can bet that missiles will be flying anywhere that is thought to be unprotected and so we need missile defense on all cities so that nothing is unprotected. The we of course changes depending on how is involved.
I said produce 100k in a month, not have them in stock. That is because technology changes. It is likely that when we (again not sure who the we is) needs this technology will have changed and so whatever existing systems we have are obsolete and useless. 100k systems would be enough to protect us (whoever we are) from today's threats, but they may be scrap when war comes.
They cost a billion each to manufacture... Only 280 have ever been made...
100k a month would be 100 trillion dollars a year, might be a bit overkill for just one weapon type.
And that's not even getting to all the people needed to staff a battery.
Anyways they did ramp up production, Ukraine is getting five more from the company of the 12 they can now build in a year. Should bring Ukraine up to ten batteries total by the end of the year including the gifted ones from the US and Germany.
https://www.globaldefensecorp.com/2023/11/13/u-s-ramps-up-patriot-missile-production-after-ukraine-war-success/
They do not cost a billion each to manufacture. They cost a billion each because of the costs to develop the system are also included in the cost - you take the costs of engineering, add in the costs of assembly and then divide by the couple hundred that have been made. this is a useful number to know, but doesn't give us any clue as to what the costs are if we made in larger quantities. If we were to have the ability to make 100k in a month that implies a large amount of automation which means that when we only make 12 a year the cost goes up even more - but when (if!) we make that 100k the cost for each goes down.
Sure there's economies of scale, but that is an absolutely ridiculous mind boggling number of a single surface to air missile system. Even Ukraine at it's highest ask says 25 (though they estimate all major cities would be covered by 7), and you think they should make 100,000 batteries?! Every year?! What would be the point of that? Who on earth would buy that many and why?
Even if they were manufactured at 20% of their current cost, a massive markdown, that would be $20 trillion a year dedicated to a single kind of a single weapon type, nearly as much as the entire gdp of the United States, and you still need the entire rest of your military paid for! They going to make 100,000 f35s and train 50,000 pilots too or something?
I'm gonna stop, this must be trolling.
I said ability to make100k in a month. Because if Russia discovers Omaha is undefended they will send missiles there. Of course it will take less than a month to cover all cities - but if this happens we need to get them rolled out fast which means max production for a couple days and then we are all covered and the factory drops back down to making 20/year (after the war 10/year)
That is I did not say we actually need to ever build 100k. I just want the rate of production to be that fast in case we actually need them.
No they won't.
I mean, I guess I get that you're saying we should be able to respond rapidly (like, WW2 levels of production) but the ridiculous way you're framing the point completely, utterly undermines any poi t you're trying to get across.