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this post was submitted on 18 Jun 2024
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He knows China doesn't have the capability to invade Taiwan, but needs to save face. So... the evil foreigners are trying to trick us, but I'm too smart to fall for their tricks!
Fascist propaganda 101, always blame the foreigners for everything.
Large scale ground invasions are generally a losing game.
But the Chinese strategy towards Taiwan has always been the same strategy as Hong Kong, Tibet, and Mongolia. Become economically invaluable and set policy through soft power.
The only real incentive to send in ground troops would be to respond to a Cuba Missile style escalation. And it no longer looks like the Americans are interested in installing short range missiles on the island, now that they have exhausted themselves arming Ukraine.
Large scale amphibious assaults even moreso. I feel like people keep forgetting Taiwan is an island. Sure China has a massive army and could throw a lot of waves of soldiers in a straight up ground campaign, but with Taiwan it wouldn't be a straight up ground campaign.
So yeah their strat would have to be based around economy and politics for the time being. Sure they're improving their Navy, but it's probably be at least a decade (if ever) they could have successful military action on Taiwan other than just sabre rattling.
Well it has the capability of trying. It would end up costing them insanely more than it could possibly gain, but still.
Xi needs to keep people thinking he's the strongman that's protecting China from the evil foreigners. If he tries to invade Taiwan and fails (the most likely outcome) he appears weak and it's over for him.