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First Presidential Debate Megapost!
(lemmy.world)
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this post was submitted on 27 Jun 2024
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politics
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I seriously doubt it but I really hope this is a wake-up call for Democrats. I remain convinced that Biden voluntarily stepping down and permitting a younger more charismatic figure in his place will be all that is needed to win, and I say this for a few reasons:
Call it a reverse-October surprise.
That being said, this is the earliest debate ever and Trump still needs to go through sentencing in July. People won't really remember this debate, but it certainly did not help Biden in any capacity.
Oh, they will play this debate in clips forever.
We live in an age of YouTube and tiktok shorts.
That "destroy Medicare" gaff that Trump capitalized on clowning him for is definitely gonna make the rounds. Makes Trump look sharp (honestly in the case it was fairly witty) and Biden look senile.
I'd elect just about anyone over Trump but c'mon Biden.
The memes write themselves.
I'm just wondering how much impact it will really have since there are already montages of Biden's senility going around.
Dude, democrats are killing it in every other metric this election season. We got some serious swing state polling right now. You are exactly right that if we can get someone new and more progressive, it would be a slam dunk.
Hell, conservative media is pretty scared right now that this very thing may happen. They know it would not just hurt their chances, it would fuckin’ bomb them.
What I saw up there was elder abuse. That was sad for Biden and sad that the DNC cancelled primaries for this when they knew this was happening.
This would hurt dem fundraising prospects over the next 4 years, so it’s not going to happen. (Unfortunately for us, because as you state it would certainly result in a landslide win of historic proportions.)
We all know that Biden is a liability. BUT WHO WILL REPLACE HIM? I don’t like the man but who else in the party can take his role? Nobody credibly challenged him during the primary. Harris doesn’t poll as well as Biden and does worse. We’re stuck with him because nobody stepped up all year or last year, and everyone who wants him to step down thinks some magic TBD savior can show up out of nowhere and magically do better. Heck, Dean Phillips tried to run for president on the exact same issues and promised identical policies just in a younger person and he lost the race badly.
We’re stuck with Biden, and likely will lose.
Gretchen Whitmer
"MAGA tried to kidnap and kill me" is a pretty good campaign narrative.
Put Big Gretch up top and keep Harris as the VP and I think they could smash Trump. I think you gotta keep Harris on board for this to be a smooth enough transition this late in the game. I think a ton of people would be excited about an all female ticket too.
Gretchen, Booker, Buttigieg, Abrams, even Newsom. Lots of potential candidates that are young, charismatic, and have largely clean slates like Obama.
People fell in line to avoid another 2016 infighting, not because we don't have candidates. Literally anyone young would do better for aforementioned reasons.
The only way this works is if Biden voluntarily agrees and steps down, which ensures nobody is burned by the party.
Show me one with higher poll numbers than Biden. When they were head to head in 2020 each polled lower than Biden against Trump.
I don’t want to defend Biden. He should go. He is a corrupt old man with a ton of baggage and his Palestine policy was atrocious. But I don’t see any of those people beating Trump based on the data we have.
Really. You want me to show polls for something that hasn't happened yet? In 2020, what are you talking about? Half these people I mentioned didn't even run in the 2020 Primaries, forgetting the obvious logical fallacy that "Who does well in the primaries predicts who does better a year from then in the General Election." In 2020, Joe Biden was 4 years younger and far less senile than he shows now while Trump's support was lower mostly thanks to a botched handling of covid at the time.
There is not one data-point where Biden isn't performing worse than he did at this time in 2020.
In the event Biden voluntarily steps down and either an open convention occurs or he endorses, is it really that inconceivable for you to believe overnight polling for such a candidate would skyrocket as both grassroots and establishment and MASSIVE widespread media press inundate such a person with coverage...?
I mean.... What?
The data shows the American people (a) vehemently dislike both candidates, (b) perceive age to be a bigger issue with Biden, and (c) want fresh faces. Any of who I mentioned could've done better last night. Biden brings nothing to the table that the others cannot in this pressing moment.
We already have Newsom vs Biden and Newsom vs Trump polls. And the pundits talked endlessly in 2020 about the shortcomings of each candidate and why they’d struggle against Trump. We’ve been through this already.
If Biden steps down then of course whoever gets nominated will get a bump of course, but like we discussed collectively in 2020, they’d have their own separate hurdles. Bernie Sanders would energize many voters but his socialism talk would turn many voters off. Pete Buttigieg struggled to connect with voters of color. Warren had some political flubs and Trump launched many attacks on her etc. while there’s concern many Americans still won’t vote for a woman for president, and so on. The point I’m making is that you may find yourself in a situation in October where you WISH Biden was running again with his high poll numbers and solid national record that other candidates lack.
That's a fair point but just consider these points:
That's an insane polling for someone who has not once threw their hat in the ring and actually campaigned nationally outside of California.
We're already starting with a President who is predicted by polling to lose to Donald Trump.
Key to note, Biden's numbers are generally baked in. Everyone knows everything about Biden, and the law of diminishing returns suggests nobody is going to find out something they dont' already know.
Whereas just the opposite is true with the likes of Whitmer & Newsom: months of viral media attention, actual national campaigns and speeches, debates, interviews -- have the opportunity for someone to familiarize themselves with such alternate candidates and see the contrast of, "Wow, this guy can actually talk coherently and is far younger..." So you have to tell me with a straight face that once committed to be the nominee their name-recognition and approval skyrocket overnight.
Mentioned weaknesses of candidates can be offset by a VP pick, as they always are.
In truth, we really haven't been through this already. To conclude otherwise is to suggest that Joe Biden is literally the best candidate Democrats can field, which at his age and with his debate performance, is an incredibly low bar.
No, we have a president who is ahead in some polls and behind in others, 6 months before an election (which is generally unreliable since the polls fluctuate wildly this early). Pollsters and political scientists unanimously report polling in June is not reliable this soon before Labor Day. Look back and you’ll see HIllary, Romney, and Dukakis all ahead at this point in previous elections. The reason we are having this conversation is because people got skittish about the Debate, but we don’t even have accurate post-debate survey data at this time. The snap surveys by CNN and others showed a muddle of some people claiming Biden won anyway and others not. More data will come in next week.
And don’t forget the counterfactual; if you replace Biden despite winning the primaries in a landslide, you will anger many voters. Millions of people voted for Biden and this was not close; they rejected Dean Phillips and alternatives. People voted for Harris as a known backup; skipping her and having Newsom take over will cause a storm and backlash of a size we can’t quantify yet. There simply isn’t any data on Democratic voters that show any Biden remorse; you’re operating on the vibes from social media and some pundits.
Correct, and replacing Biden is a huge risk. It could cost the election the same way John McCain took a gamble on Sarah Palin and lost.
I need to hold you to some key points, here:
There is fundamentally ZERO data supporting a Biden victory this November. Think about that.
One would agree that while these are not snapshots in time and October surprises can occur, it's certainly not a GOOD sign that Biden is.
For example, we would consider it to be a pretty good sign if Biden was leading in national polling 80% to Trump 20%, correct? Now obviously this doesn't mean something can't change between now and November, but it would certainly correlate with good prospects - agreed?
Now reflect on that fact that national aggregate polling of all reputable national surveys show Biden trails his 2020 performance at the same time By nearly 10%... When you consider 2020 was decided on the margins in battleground states by ~40,000 voters, this is a terrible sign. Especially when specific polling on black and hispanic and swing-voters in these specific battleground states ALSO bodes worse for Biden this time around.
Many people did not vote for Biden; hell in Florida, they didn't even hold the Primaries it went by default to Biden. An uncontested primaries isn't exactly proof people will be upset -- especially when polling data is already telling us the vast majority of the electorate is unhappy with voting for Joe Biden. And call me crazy but I'm not too worried about the dyed-in-the-wool Democrat from California upset that we change from Biden. I'm pretty sure they'll vote for anyone else the Democrats appoint.
Joe Biden already is our Sarah Palin. You're struggling to find any conceivable data to support your assertions and you know it.
Californians don’t matter here. Voters in swing states like Pennsylvania do. Ohioans are less likely to vote for Gavin Newsom over Biden. If you magically think that Newsom can ramp up a presidential campaign from scratch and beat Biden’s name recognition and win Wisconsin in only 6 months, you’re being insanely optimistic.
Look, I despise Biden since he ignored all his advisors and set a disastrous Gaza policy, and want anyone but him. He was one of the worst candidates of 2020 but since he was “the most electable” we were told to shut up and fall in line. His electability has faltered. But it’s almost July, the window of time to replace him and win already closed. I’m not going to keep arguing, we’ll agree to disagree.
Exactly!! That's precisely my point! You tried to claim millions of people voted for Biden in the primaries when that doesn't translate to battleground swing-state voters.
Biden is the guaranteed loss based on all available data we have, relative to his performance in 2020. Those battleground swing voters? Biden is ALREADY losing them. Besides, there's a non-zero chance that Joe Biden could suffer an emergency health crisis after the convention... And then we're REALLY fucked because at best we default to Harris who polls worse than everyone.
Yes, he absolutely can and I'm not the only one who believes it. If you don't think there wouldn't be a media frenzy over a sudden new face on the scene you'd be crazy. Whitmer, Newsom, or hey -- how about Josh Shapiro who actually outperformed Biden himself in Pennsylvania...? If that's really your concern, after all.
The window of time closes after the Convention. After that, we're stuck.
I repeat: Biden is performing significantly worse in every single data-point compared to his 2020 run where he eeked a win by sliver. If he was up 20 points I wouldn't even be saying a word. But after that debate performance seen by 50 million people? Every indicator for the election is only going to get worse for Biden.
Newsom looked strong on MSNBC post debate.
Honestly he would come out swinging and well backed financially. He's moderate but not truly conservative from a leftist POV and moderate but not truly leftist from a "between the parties" POV.
He could do it.
Also I have a soft spot for California Gubernatorial races. They're just more fun.
The only problem I see with Newsom is that California is already largely demonized by Midwest voters as some sort of liberal hell hole. He’d need to find a way to resonate with low income, non-coastal voters.
You'd be surprised how quickly Mid West voters will forget about "California" when he announces more farming subsidies as a campaign promise.
How is it possible that there's no one better than Biden? He's just so unelectable.
I mean, ok he's done some great things as pres... but he's too fucking old. JFC. Someone in their 50s
Because the election is a popularity contest, and name recognition is everything.
And he's the incumbent. He is president right now.
But people recognise his name as being the guy who is too old.
It's irrelevant that he's the incumbent. He can just not run.
Id be happy with Bernie
But we could face similar issues in 2028
Another geriatric
Dean Phillips made the mistake of trusting his vocal cords to a high pitched hurrah, lol.
Edit: oops, wrong guy.
I think you're thinking of Howard Dean?
Yep, my bad.
wake up calls don't do shit when you're not interested in "waking up"
every day, event, poll, election is "a wake up call to Democrats"
That section on Golf Dick Measuring is a pre written attack ad. This is not going away.
That ship sailed over a year ago. We’re on this one. Get to bucketing.
Youth don't vote, only Boomers vote. This is a election decided by Boomers, with Boomer issues.
I don't understand the point you're making, sorry.