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this post was submitted on 12 Jul 2024
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What is your understanding of what the polls currently show?
I don’t really agree that polls mean much of anything, but I am curious what you think they show.
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Biden being on par with any unnamed Democrat and Harris +4 over Biden in head-to-head matchups with Trump.
Which poll was that?
These are the polls I’m aware of
https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/02/politics/cnn-poll-post-debate/index.html
Biden: -6 Harris: -2
And four points is well above the margin of error.
The thing is the outrage machine hasn't spun up yet on full force against Kamala. Once they do that she will poll worse.
Not sure how, she's a total nothingburger. They'll try and make do with insults, slander, and bigotry, but they've already locked in the segment of the population that's receptive to that anyway.
I'm gonna stick with my polls, which start from a standpoint of "let's probe for the reality" instead of asking leading questions. There's a lot about this story that is just weird and suspect.
A lot of these polls have been polling both Republican and Democratic candidates, and then reporting the numbers letting that little nugget slide under the radar. 100% of the Republicans are gonna say that Biden is trash whatever the question is, because the ones who are still voting Republican are programmed like the Manchurian candidate to stand up and say "BIDEN IS THE WRONG ONE"
IDK. I won't say there is nothing in this story that is valid or a thing to worry about. And, even if Democratic voters are sticking with Biden basically unchanged since the debate, that doesn't mean it wouldn't be a good idea to switch him for someone who doesn't have this real oldness problem. But I like the apples to apples comparison of just looking at Biden vs. other Democrats in non-debate-centered-construction polls, and Biden vs. Trump overall, and seeing if that number shifts.